气候变化对中国水稻产量及其区域差异性的影响

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2018.0224

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1978-2015年中国29个省（自治区、直辖市）的水稻投入产出和气象数据，通过构建"经济-气候"模型，实证分析气候因素对我国水稻产量及其区域差异性的影响。研究表明：（1）降水量、日照时长和气温与我国水稻总产量之间存在倒U型关系。（2）气候变化对水稻产量影响的区域差异性明显。降水增多有利于西南、黄淮海和西北及长城沿线（简称西北）地区水稻产量增加，但对东北、长江中下游和华南地区水稻生产不利；日照时长增加对西南和东北地区水稻产量具有促进作用；温度升高对长江中下游、华南、西北地区水稻产量有正向作用，但对西南、东北和黄淮海地区水稻产量则具有显著负向作用。

关键词: 气候变化, 水稻产量, "经济-气候"模型, 区域差异性

Abstract:

With rice input-output data and meteorological data of 29 provinces, autonomous regions and metropolises in China from 1978 to 2015, the impacts of climate factors on rice yield and the regional heterogeneity were empirically analysed by constructing an "economy-climate" model. The results show that:(1) There is an inverse-U shape relation between precipitation, duration of sunshine, temperature, and the total rice production in China.(2) The regional heterogeneity of the influence of climate change on rice yield is obvious. The increase of precipitation is beneficial to the increase of rice yield in the southwestern, Huang-Huai-Hai and northwestern regions, but it is not favorable to the rice production in the northeastern China, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and the southern China; the increase in sunshine duration has a positive effect on rice yield in the southwestern and northeastern regions; the increase of temperature has a positive effect on rice production in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, southern area and northwestern area, but exerts a significantly negative effect on rice production in the southwestern, the northeastern, and Huang-Huai-Hai areas.

Key words: climate change, rice yield, "economy-climate", model, regional heterogeneity

中图分类号:

韩芳玉, 张俊飚, 程琳琳, 童庆蒙, 刘勇. 气候变化对中国水稻产量及其区域差异性的影响[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2019, 35(3): 283-289.

HAN Fang-yu, ZHANG Jun-biao, CHENG Lin-lin, TONG Qing-meng, LIU Yong. Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield and Its Regional Heterogeneity in China[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2019, 35(3): 283-289.

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