气候变化下大兴安岭地区紫貂优先保护区分析

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2018.0782

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了解气候变化对大兴安岭地区紫貂（Martes zibellina）潜在分布的影响，选取年均温、平均气温日较差、最热月最高温和最冷月最低温4个气候变量，坡度、坡向和高程3个地形变量以及植被类型共8个关键环境因子，采用MaxEnt模型模拟当前和未来2种气候变化情景（RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5）条件下2041-2060和2061-2080年紫貂潜在分布区域，并确定其优先保护区。结果表明：（1）当前气候条件下，紫貂潜在适宜生境主要分布在大兴安岭中部和西北部，分布面积占大兴安岭地区总面积的13.74%；（2）未来气候情景下，紫貂潜在适宜生境面积占比比当前适宜生境减少7.21~13.72个百分点；（3）当前气候条件下紫貂优先保护区主要分布于额尔古纳市东北部、漠河县西南部、呼玛县西部和根河市东部，目标优先保护区保护率达46.19%，保护空缺主要分布在根河市中东部、额尔古纳市与漠河县交界地带。建议在保护空缺处建设生态廊道，适当增加保护地面积，以有效保护紫貂。

关键词: 紫貂, 气候变化, 适宜生境, 优先保护区域, 大兴安岭

Abstract: The climate change has significant effects on the potential distribution of Martes zibellina in Daxing'anling region. Eight key environmental factors, including four climate variables (Bio1, Bio2, Bio5, Bio6), three topographic variables (slope, aspect, elevation) and vegetation type, were selected to simulate the potential distribution of Martes zibellina in Daxing'anling by using MaxEnt model with the current and the future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5, 8.5). The Priority Protection Areas (PPAs) and the target PPAs were identified by Zonation and ArcGIS. The results show that:(1) The suitable habitats of Martes zibellina are mainly distributed in the central and the northwestern parts of Daxing'anling with the current climate scenario, which is 13.74% of the total area of Daxing'anling region; (2) With the future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitats of Martes zibellina would be decreased by 7.21-13.72 percent compared to the current area; (3) Under current climate condition, the PPAs of Martes zibellina are mainly distributed in the northeast of Ergun City, the southwest of Mohe County, the west of Huma County and the east of Genhe City, and 46.19% of the target PPAs have been conserved by protected areas (PAs). The protection gaps were mainly distributed in the central and the east of Genhe City, and the juncture of Ergun City and Mohe County. It is recommended to set ecological corridors and more PAs to provide strong guarantee for the effective protection of Martes zibellina.

Key words: Martes zibellina, climate change, suitable habitat, priority protection area, Daxing'anling

中图分类号:

X176
Q958

蒋丽华, 高俊琴, 万基中, 刘吉平. 气候变化下大兴安岭地区紫貂优先保护区分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2019, 35(11): 1404-1411.

JIANG Li-hua, GAO Jun-qin, WAN Ji-zhong, LIU Ji-ping. Analysis of Priority Protection Area of Martes zibellina Under Climate Change in Daxing'anling, China[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2019, 35(11): 1404-1411.

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