基于PLUS模型和InVEST模型的南京市生态系统碳储量时空变化与预测

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2022.0953

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量变化有着重要影响,研究土地利用变化与碳储量的空间格局,有利于优化国土空间布局,协调生态保护与土地开发利用之间的关系。以南京市域为研究区,基于2000-2020年土地利用数据,采用InVEST模型对此20年间南京市土地利用变化及碳储量变化进行分析,同时采用PLUS模型预测不同发展情景下2040年南京市碳储量分布,结果表明:(1)土地利用变化直接影响研究区碳储量。2000-2020年,城市建设用地扩张65.62%,耕地、林地和草地随之减少,南京市碳储量减少2.62×10⁶ t;(2)根据预测,到2040年,在耕地保护情景下,碳储量下降最少,仅下降2.44×10⁵ t;在生态保护情景下,碳储量下降1.56×10⁶ t;在城镇发展情景下,碳储量下降最多,下降1.78×10⁶ t;在自然发展情景下,碳储量下降1.62×10⁶ t。这表明采取耕地保护和生态保护政策,可以有效控制碳储量减少;(3)碳储量空间分布特征与土地利用分布保持一致,对于碳储量较高的区域,其建设用地少、生态用地集聚连片且分布较多。因此,在未来规划中,应保护耕地和生态用地,控制建设用地扩张,以提高区域碳储量水平,实现碳中和目标。

关键词: 土地利用变化, PLUS模型, InVEST模型, 碳储量, 生态系统服务功能, 南京市

Abstract: Change of land use has important impacts on change of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the spatial layout of land use change and carbon storage can benefit the optimization of territorial space layout and the coordination of relationships between ecological protection and land development and utilization. Based on the land use data of Nanjing from 2000 to 2020, the changes of land use and carbon storage in Nanjing in the 20 years were analyzed using InVEST model, and the carbon storage distributions of Nanjing in 2040 were predicted using PLUS model for different development scenarios. The results show that: (1) Land use change had direct effects on the carbon storage in Nanjing. From 2000 to 2020, the urban construction land increased by 65.62% while the farmland, forest land and grassland reduced; and the carbon storage reduced by 2.62 × 10⁶ t. (2) By 2040, the predicted carbon storage will decline by 2.44 × 10⁵, 1.56 × 10⁶, 1.78 × 10⁶ and 1.62 × 10⁶ t in the scenarios of farmland protection, ecological protection, urban development and natural development, respectively. These predictions indicate that the policies of farmland protection and ecological protection can effectively control the reduction of carbon storage. (3) The spatial distribution of carbon storage was consistent with that of land use distribution. Areas with high carbon storage generally had less construction land and more ecological land. These results suggest that to improve the regional carbon storage level and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, farmland and ecological land should be protected while construction land expansion should be restricted in the territorial planning in future.

Key words: land use change, PLUS model, InVEST model, carbon storage, ecosystem service function, Nanjin

中图分类号:

X171.1

孙欣欣, 薛建辉, 董丽娜. 基于PLUS模型和InVEST模型的南京市生态系统碳储量时空变化与预测[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2023, 39(1): 41-51.

SUN Xin-xin, XUE Jian-hui, DONG Li-na. Spatiotemporal Change and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Nanjing Ecosystem Based on PLUS Model and InVEST Model[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2023, 39(1): 41-51.

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