江西省农田投入品输入时空演变特征及与种植业结构调整的关系

    Characteristics of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Agricultural Inputs and Its Association with Planting Structure Adjustment in Jiangxi Province

    • 摘要: 厘清近30年间江西省农田投入品输入的时空演变特征,并探究其与种植业结构调整的关系,可为江西省农业生产提质增效和农业面源污染防治提供理论依据。采用重心模型和结构均衡度方法,基于ArcGIS探究了江西省1992—2019年农田化肥、农药和农用薄膜输入的时空演变特征,并通过线性回归分析探讨了种植业结构调整与农田投入品输入量的关系。结果表明:(1)1992—2019年江西省化肥、农药和农用薄膜输入量整体呈先增后减的变化趋势,自2015年实施了一系列农药化肥减量增效政策之后,江西省农田化肥和农药输入量明显降低,2020年化肥、农药输入量比2015年分别下降24.5%和43.9%,但是近年来农用薄膜输入量的减缓趋势并不明显;(2)江西省化肥输入强度存在明显的空间聚集现象,总体呈现沿鄱阳湖流域、抚河流域和赣江流域聚集分布的趋势;农药输入程度在赣东北地区普遍较高;农用薄膜输入量在全省普遍增加,其中,赣东和赣南农用薄膜输入量增加尤其明显;(3)江西省种植业结构调整表现为果园种植面积占比不断增大,从1992年的10.67万hm2增长到2020年的42.78万hm2,占比由2.1%增长至7.6%。与化肥和农药输入量相比,果园种植面积扩张与农用薄膜输入量呈更强的相关性,表明江西省果园种植面积扩张与农用薄膜输入量增加关系密切。

       

      Abstract: The objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural inputs in Jiangxi Province over a 30-year period and investigate their correlation with adjustments in planting structure. This research aims to establish a theoretical foundation for enhancing the quality and efficiency of agricultural production and mitigating non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector. The analysis was conducted using ArcGIS, the center of gravity model, and the structural equilibrium degree approach. Linear regression analysis was employed to examine the correlation between changes in agricultural planting structure and agricultural inputs. The findings indicate that: (1) The input of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural films in Jiangxi Province demonstrated an overall trend of increasing and then decreasing from 1992 to 2019. However, the input of chemical fertilizers and pesticides on farmland in Jiangxi Province has been significantly reduced since the implementation of a series of policies aimed at reducing the consumption of pesticides and fertilizers and improving their efficiency in 2015, and the input of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in 2020 decreased by 24.5% and 43.9%, respectively compared with that in 2015, but the slowing trend of agricultural film input in recent years is not obvious; (2) There is a clear pattern of spatial clustering in the intensity of fertilizer application throughout Jiangxi Province, with a general trend of aggregated distribution along Poyang Lake Basin, Fuhe River Basin and Ganjiang River Basin; the degree of pesticide input is generally higher in the northeast of Jiangxi Province; and plastic agricultural film usage was generally increasing and particularly prevalent in the eastern and southern areas of the province; (3) The restructuring of the plantation industry in Jiangxi Province is evident in the significant rise of orchard plantation area, which increased from 106.7 thousand hectares in 1992 to 427.8 thousand hectares in 2020, resulting in an increase in proportion from 2.1% to 7.6%. A more pronounced correlation exists between the expansion of orchard planting area and the utilization of agricultural films, in comparison to the application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. This observation suggests a strong correlation between the expansion of fruit cultivation areas in Jiangxi Province and the concurrent rise in the adoption of agricultural films.

       

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