生态与农村环境学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 259-269.doi: 10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2016.02.014

• 区域环境与发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

极端高温对黄淮海平原冬小麦产量的影响

石晓丽1,2, 史文娇3   

  1. 1. 河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 河北石家庄 050024;
    2. 河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室, 河北石家庄 050024;
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室, 北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2015-04-08 出版日期:2016-03-25 发布日期:2016-04-01
  • 通讯作者: 史文娇,E-mail:shiwj@lreis.ac.cn E-mail:shiwj@lreis.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:石晓丽(1981-),女,河北栾城人,副教授,博士,主要研究方向为气候变化对农业的影响。E-mail:shixiaoli_2004@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(41371002,41401113);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05090310);河北省教育厅重点项目(ZD2016066);河北省自然地理学重点学科建设项目

Impacts of Extreme High Temperature on Winter Wheat Yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

SHI Xiao-li1,2, SHI Wen-jiao3   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolvement and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050024, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2015-04-08 Online:2016-03-25 Published:2016-04-01

摘要:

以黄淮海平原冬小麦为研究对象,选择极热天数和极端生长度日作为极端高温指标,采用气候倾向率法分析冬小麦生长季极端高温的时空变化分布规律;基于一阶差分法建立一般生长度日、极端生长度日和降水与冬小麦产量的多元线性回归模型,从县级、省级和区域3个尺度分析冬小麦产量对极端高温的敏感性,阐明近29 a极端高温对冬小麦产量变化的贡献程度。结果表明,1980-2008年,黄淮海平原冬小麦生长季的极端高温有加剧趋势,且空间上自东向西逐渐加重。在县级、省级和区域尺度极端生长度日对冬小麦产量均呈明显的负效应。淮河以北地区大部分县市的极端高温对冬小麦具有明显的减产效应。天津市和河南省冬小麦受极端高温影响严重,分别减产4.15%和1.49%。近29 a来黄淮海平原北部与南部区域冬小麦生长季极端生长度日的增加分别导致冬小麦减产0.72%和0.65%。因此,过去几十年的极端高温不利于黄淮海平原冬小麦的生长发育。

关键词: 极端高温, 冬小麦产量, 一阶差分法, 黄淮海平原

Abstract:

So far little has been reported on impacts of extremely high temperature on yield of winter wheat. Currently a study was conducted in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, a major wheat producing region of the country, using the number of extremely hot days and the number of extreme growing degree days as indicators of extremely high temperature to explore spatio-temporal variation of extremely high temperature during the winter wheat growing seasons, with the climate tendency rate method. And a multi-factor linear regression model encompassing the number of normal growing degree days, the number of extreme growing degree days, precipitation, and winter wheat yield was established with the first difference method and used to analyze sensitivity of winter wheat in yield to extremely high temperature on the county, province and region scales and further to illustrate contribution of extremely high temperature to winter wheat yield during the 29 years from 1980 to 2008. Results show that during the 29 years, extremely high temperature displayed a rising trend and spatially from east to west a rising trend too, and the number of extreme growing degree days had a significantly negative effect on winter wheat yield, on all the three scales. Extremely high temperature during the winter growing season was found to have an obvious yield-reducing effect on winter wheat in the region north to the Huai River, specially in Tianjin and Henan Province, where the yield of winter wheat decreased by 4.15% and 1.49%, respectively. In the northern and southern parts of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the increasing number of extreme growing degree days caused a drop of 0.72% and 0.65% in winter wheat yield during the period. Obviously extremely high temperature affects negatively growth and production of winter wheat in the region.

Key words: extremely high temperature, winter wheat yield, first difference method, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

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