中国西北干旱地区水资源利用效率及其影响因素

doi:10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2017.11.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水资源的有效利用是中国西北干旱地区经济社会发展的重要战略问题。利用带有非期望产出的数据包络分析方法测度2004-2015年中国西北干旱区水资源利用效率（ETE），并将其与未考虑非期望产出的水资源利用效率（TE）进行对比，发现ETE值要明显小于TE值，表明传统效率测度方法会高估效率水平；从时间演进来看，2004-2015年间，西北地区水资源利用效率呈快速上升趋势；西北5省区水资源利用效率的省际分布不平衡，陕西、青海、新疆的效率值接近最佳前沿面，甘肃和宁夏效率值低。采用α收敛法分析西北5省区水资源利用效率的收敛性，发现不仅无收敛趋势，反而呈发散状态，表明未来区域水资源利用效率差距将进一步拉大。借助Tobit模型分析西北地区水资源利用效率的影响因素，发现经济发展水平、产业结构、城镇化水平和水资源禀赋对水资源利用效率有正向影响，政府干预为负向影响。

关键词: 水资源利用效率, 收敛性, 影响因素, 非期望产出, 西北干旱地区

Abstract:

Effective utilization of water resources is an important strategic issue for economic and social sustainable development of the arid areas of Northwest China. The method of data envelopment analysis with undesirable output was used to analyze water use efficiency (ETE) of the arid areas in Northwest China in the period from 2004 to 2015, and compared it with the water resource utilization efficiency obtained with the method without undesirable output (TE). It was found that ETE was significantly lower than TE in value, indicating that the traditional water use efficiency determination method tends to overestimate the efficiency. From the point of view of time evolution, the water utilization efficiency was increasing rapidly from 2004 to 2015, but distributed unevenly in the arid region of Shaanxi, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Gansu and Ningxia. It was close to the best frontier in Shaanxi, Qinghai and Xinjiang, but rather low in Gansu and Ningxia. The convergence of water use efficiency of the five provinces was analyzed with the a-convergence method. It was found that the water resource utilization efficiency did not have any trend of convergence, but a trend of divergence, instead, which indicates that the discrepancies between the areas will further grow in the future. With the help of the Tobit model factors affecting the water resources utilization efficiency in Northwest China were analyzed, revealing that economic development level, industrial structure, urbanization level and water resource properties all have positive effects, but government intervention does a negative one on water resources utilization efficiency.

Key words: water resources utilization efficiency, convergence, influential factor, undesirable output, arid areas in Northwest China

中图分类号:

张振龙, 孙慧, 苏洋, 何昭丽. 中国西北干旱地区水资源利用效率及其影响因素[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2017, 33(11): 961-967.

ZHANG Zhen-long, SUN Hui, SU Yang, HE Zhao-li. Water Use Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in Arid Areas of Northwest China[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2017, 33(11): 961-967.

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