长江经济带种植业碳排放时空特征及驱动因素研究

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2019.0158

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于2001-2017年长江经济带种植业产值、有效灌溉面积以及种植业物资投入等统计数据，采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）碳排系数法对长江经济带种植业碳排放量进行测算，揭示该区域种植业碳排放时空特征，并利用对数平均权重的迪氏分解（LMDI）模型分析该区域种植业碳排放的驱动因素。研究结果表明：（1）长江经济带种植业碳排放量整体上得到有效控制且呈逐渐下降趋势；各省市种植业碳排放量及碳排放强度存在较大差异；种植业碳源以化肥为主，其占比超过50%，且化肥、农药和翻耕的投入比重呈下降趋势。（2）农业经济水平是该区域种植业碳排放增加最主要的驱动因素；农业生产效率是种植业碳排放减少的最主要驱动因素；农业生产结构整体上对种植业碳排放起促进作用，农业劳动力规模整体上对种植业碳排放起抑制作用。针对上述研究结论，从因地制宜、突出重点、科技导向、优化结构等方面提出了相关政策建议，以实现长江经济带农业低碳、绿色、协调的高质量发展。

关键词: 长江经济带, 种植业碳排放, 时空特征, 驱动因素

Abstract: Based on the statistical data of planting output value, effective irrigated area and material input in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2001 to 2017, the carbon emission from planting industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was calculated by using the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method. The spatio-temporal characteristics of carbon emission from planting industry in this region were revealed and the driving factors of carbon emissions were analyzed by using LMDI model. The results show that:(1) The carbon emissions of planting industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were controlled effectively and showed a decreasing trend, while the carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of planting industry in different provinces and cities were significantly different. Chemical fertilizer was the main source of carbon emission in planting industry, accounting for more than 50%, while the proportion of chemical fertilizer, pesticide and tillage input was decreasing. (2) The agricultural economic level was the most important driving factor for the increase of carbon emissions from planting industry in this region. The agricultural production efficiency was the most important driving factor to reduce the carbon emission from the planting industry, and the agricultural production structure played an important role in promoting the carbon emission from the planting industry as a whole, and the size of the agricultural labor force played an important role in restraining the carbon emission from the planting industry as a whole. In order to realize the high-quality development of low-carbon and green agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, some relevant policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of adapting measures to local conditions, highlighting the key points, guiding by science and technology, optimizing the structure and so on.

Key words: the Yangtze River Economic Belt, planting industry emissions, spatio-temporal characteristics, driving factors

中图分类号:

丁宝根, 杨树旺, 赵玉. 长江经济带种植业碳排放时空特征及驱动因素研究[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2019, 35(10): 1252-1258.

DING Bao-gen, YANG Shu-wang, ZHAO Yu. Study on Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Carbon Emission From Planting Industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2019, 35(10): 1252-1258.

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