生态与农村环境学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (11): 1484-1489.doi: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2018.0731

• 研究简报 • 上一篇    下一篇

西藏地区主要农作物敏感区对气候变化的响应

高佳佳1, 杜军1, 刘朝阳2, 周刊社3   

  1. 1. 西藏高原大气环境科学研究所, 西藏 拉萨 850000;
    2. 中国科学院南京土壤研究所, 江苏 南京 210008;
    3. 西藏自治区气候中心, 西藏 拉萨 850000
  • 收稿日期:2018-11-13 发布日期:2019-11-19
  • 通讯作者: 杜军 E-mail:1015102649@qq.com
  • 作者简介:高佳佳(1986-),女,河北邯郸人,硕士生,主要研究方向为气候变化与预测。E-mail:gaojj12@lzu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201935)

Study on Response of Sensitive Area of Main Crops to Climate Change in Tibet Area

GAO Jia-jia1, DU Jun1, LIU Zhao-yang2, ZHOU Kan-she3   

  1. 1. Tibet Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Science, Lhasa 850000, China;
    2. Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China;
    3. Climate Center of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850000, China
  • Received:2018-11-13 Published:2019-11-19

摘要: 为了解西藏地区主要农作物对气候变化的响应,利用经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function,EOF)方法对1980-2015年西藏地区农作物单产资料及气温、降水量逐月资料进行分析。结果表明,气温和降水量异常敏感区均位于沿雅鲁藏布江和藏东林芝地区,青稞和春小麦敏感区主要位于沿雅鲁藏布江中段,豆类敏感区主要位于拉萨市和藏东南地区,油料敏感区位于拉萨市。青稞产量在1983和2000年存在突变,1984-1999年处于相对低产阶段,2000年之后转为高产阶段。日喀则市青稞产量变化与气温和降水量EOF第一模态的时间系数对应关系较好,说明日喀则市青稞产量对气候变化存在明显响应,且对气温的敏感性优于对降水量的敏感性。

关键词: 西藏, 作物产量, 气候变化, 敏感区, 经验正交函数(EOF)方法

Abstract: In order to understand the crop responses to climate changes in Tibetan during 1980 to 2015, the crop yield, the temperature and precipitation were analyzed with empirical orthogonal function (EOF). Results show that crop yields along Yarlung Zangbo river and in Nyingchi region were sensitive to precipitation and temperature. The most sensitive area of highland barley and spring wheat was in the middle and lower reaches of Yarlung Zangbo river. Meanwhile, the most sensitive area of legume crops was found to be in Lhasa and the south-east Tibet. The most sensitive area of rapeseed crop was in Lhasa. Before 1984, the highland barley output was in a relatively low-yield stage. It was in a period of volatility between 1994 and 1999, and turned into a high-yield stage after 2000. The change of highland barley output in this region was in good agreement with the time coefficient corresponding to the first mode of temperature and precipitation EOF, which indicate that the highland barley output had obvious response to climate change, and its sensitivity to temperature was better than that to precipitation.

Key words: Tibet, crop output, climate change, sensitive area, empirical orthogonal function (EOF)

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