高佳佳, 杜军, 刘朝阳, 等. 西藏地区主要农作物敏感区对气候变化的响应[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2019, 35(11): 1484-1489. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2018.0731
    引用本文: 高佳佳, 杜军, 刘朝阳, 等. 西藏地区主要农作物敏感区对气候变化的响应[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2019, 35(11): 1484-1489. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2018.0731
    GAO Jia-jia, DU Jun, LIU Zhao-yang, et al. Study on Response of Sensitive Area of Main Crops to Climate Change in Tibet Area[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2019, 35(11): 1484-1489. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2018.0731
    Citation: GAO Jia-jia, DU Jun, LIU Zhao-yang, et al. Study on Response of Sensitive Area of Main Crops to Climate Change in Tibet Area[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2019, 35(11): 1484-1489. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2018.0731

    西藏地区主要农作物敏感区对气候变化的响应

    Study on Response of Sensitive Area of Main Crops to Climate Change in Tibet Area

    • 摘要: 为了解西藏地区主要农作物对气候变化的响应,利用经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function,EOF)方法对1980-2015年西藏地区农作物单产资料及气温、降水量逐月资料进行分析。结果表明,气温和降水量异常敏感区均位于沿雅鲁藏布江和藏东林芝地区,青稞和春小麦敏感区主要位于沿雅鲁藏布江中段,豆类敏感区主要位于拉萨市和藏东南地区,油料敏感区位于拉萨市。青稞产量在1983和2000年存在突变,1984-1999年处于相对低产阶段,2000年之后转为高产阶段。日喀则市青稞产量变化与气温和降水量EOF第一模态的时间系数对应关系较好,说明日喀则市青稞产量对气候变化存在明显响应,且对气温的敏感性优于对降水量的敏感性。

       

      Abstract: In order to understand the crop responses to climate changes in Tibetan during 1980 to 2015, the crop yield, the temperature and precipitation were analyzed with empirical orthogonal function (EOF). Results show that crop yields along Yarlung Zangbo river and in Nyingchi region were sensitive to precipitation and temperature. The most sensitive area of highland barley and spring wheat was in the middle and lower reaches of Yarlung Zangbo river. Meanwhile, the most sensitive area of legume crops was found to be in Lhasa and the south-east Tibet. The most sensitive area of rapeseed crop was in Lhasa. Before 1984, the highland barley output was in a relatively low-yield stage. It was in a period of volatility between 1994 and 1999, and turned into a high-yield stage after 2000. The change of highland barley output in this region was in good agreement with the time coefficient corresponding to the first mode of temperature and precipitation EOF, which indicate that the highland barley output had obvious response to climate change, and its sensitivity to temperature was better than that to precipitation.

       

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