关键词: 生态系统服务价值, 经济, 协调度, 惠州市, CA-Markov

Abstract: Land change science focuses on the relationship between the ecological environment and the economy, which is beneficial for sustainable development. Based on remote sensing images of Huizhou City from 2000 to 2015, a CA-Markov model was used to predict land use cover change in 2025. For this,1 km×1 km land use data were employed and the ESV values and GDP were calculated as the ecology and economy. An EEHC model was used to couple the economy and the ecological environment and prospective spatio-temporal evolution was explored. To reveal coupled coordination and spatial variation characteristics of these factors in rapid urbanized region, Getis-ord Gi^* was used to analyze the coordination degree of spatio-temporal variation. The results show that:(1) Compared with other periods, the predicted land use pattern of Huizhou in 2025 has a higher land use efficiency. Although the landscape fragmentation in this region is prominent, it has been effectively alleviated compared with the earlier period. (2) In the past 20 years, EEHC had changed significantly, and the unbalanced area was larger than the concerted area. The spatial distribution was unbalanced, and the phenomenon of polarization is more serious than before. In addition, the level of ecological and economic coordination is generally not high, while the developed areas has been changing from uncoordinated to coordinated gradually expanding. The area distributed around the developed areas gradually expanded. (3) The EEHC spatial distribution pattern evolved from a single cold point aggregation in 2000 to a common distribution of two cold and hot spots in 2025, and the hot spots gradually migrated to the cold spots. The concerted developmental level of the economy and ecology in rapidly urbanized regions was low, and the situation was more serious. However, it had a good tendency, and the problem of spatial varied imbalance was more pronounced. In the developed areas while developing the economy, the intensity of ecological restoration and protection should also be increased, which is beneficial for the sustainable development of the economy and ecological synergy. This study provides a theoretical basis for future researches to promote the coordinated development of land security, ecological environment, and economic development. The results are of great significance for the sustainable development of natural, economic, and social systems, which are important for the sustainable development of cities.

Key words: ecosystem service value, economy, coordination degree, Huizhou City, CA-Markov