关键词: 农村居民点, 时空特征, 驱动因素, 结构方程模型, 大都市边缘区

Abstract: Excavate thoroughly and fully the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of rural settlements in metropolis fringe is of great practical significance for the spatial optimization of rural settlements, economical promotion and intensive use of land resources during the urbanization process. Based on Landsat TM remote sensing, the land use information of 450 rural settlements in Tianjin in 1980, 2000 and 2019 were obtained by using ArcGIS software. The spatial overlap analysis, kernel density analysis and structural equation model were used to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution and influencing factors of rural settlements in the past 40 years. The results show that the number of rural settlements decreased from 426 in 1980 to 127 in 2019. There were 355 unchanged villages from 1980 to 2000, while there were 322 decreasing villages and 81 unchanged villages from 2000 to 2019. The spatial distribution of rural settlements showed the characteristics of agglomeration. However, the estimated core density of rural settlements gradually decreased from 1980 to 2019, which showed fewer high-density areas and almost no rural settlements near the central urban area. Regional economy and household behavior have direct impact on the change of rural settlements, while family endowment and government policy indirectly promoted the change of rural settlements through economic development.

Key words: rural settlement, spatial-temporal characteristics, driving factors, structural equation model, metropolis fringe