关键词: 农业碳排放, 碳达峰, 碳排放强度, XGBoost模型, 碳减排

Abstract: Agriculture serves as the foundation of China's nation-building while also being an important source of carbon emissions. Promoting the development of low carbon agriculture can contribute to the achievements of China's overall carbon mitigation goals. This study focuses on four main agricultural carbon sources: agricultural inputs, farmland utilization, livestock and poultry farming, and straw burning. The agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2020 was then calibrated with IPCC Carbon Emission Model, the influencing factors was decomposed by the LMDI model to, and the carbon emissions from 2021 to 2050 was predicted by employing the XGBoost model. The research findings of this study are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the total agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province fluctuated with a downward trend initially, followed by an increase, and then another decline. Overall, there was an upward trend in total emissions, but the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions decreased annually. Amongst all the four sources, farmland soil utilization contributed the most, followed by livestock and poultry farming, agricultural inputs, and straw burning. From 2000 to 2020, significant regional disparities were observed in emissions and emission intensity across all the prefecture-level 11 cities in Jiangxi Province, and these disparities continued to widen. Yichun City ranked the top in both total amount of emissions and the average carbon emission intensity. (2) The increase in regional economic development and urbanization rate were the main factors leading to the rise in agricultural carbon emissions, while the effects of agricultural production efficiency, agricultural industry structure, regional industrial structure, and labor force on carbon reduction were relatively limited. (3) The 2030 prediction results indicate that agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province and all its 11 prefecture-level cities have already reached their peaks. Xinyu City reached its peak the earliest in 2005, while Jingdezhen City and Ganzhou City reached their peaks the latest in 2016. According to the prediction, after 2020, the carbon emissions of Jiangxi Province will experience a period of rising followed by oscillating decline. Yichun City and Xinyu City will experience relatively large fluctuations, while Nanchang City, Fuzhou City, and Jiujiang City show an upward trend in carbon emissions. Other cities will experience a minor fluctuation and a subsequent decline in emissions after a certain period.

Key words: agricultural carbon emissions, carbon emission peak, carbon emission intensity, XGBoost model, carbon abatement