Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 283-289.doi: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2018.0224

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Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield and Its Regional Heterogeneity in China

HAN Fang-yu1,2, ZHANG Jun-biao1,2, CHENG Lin-lin1,2, TONG Qing-meng1,2, LIU Yong1,2   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China;
    2. Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China
  • Received:2018-04-20 Online:2019-03-25 Published:2019-04-25


With rice input-output data and meteorological data of 29 provinces, autonomous regions and metropolises in China from 1978 to 2015, the impacts of climate factors on rice yield and the regional heterogeneity were empirically analysed by constructing an "economy-climate" model. The results show that:(1) There is an inverse-U shape relation between precipitation, duration of sunshine, temperature, and the total rice production in China.(2) The regional heterogeneity of the influence of climate change on rice yield is obvious. The increase of precipitation is beneficial to the increase of rice yield in the southwestern, Huang-Huai-Hai and northwestern regions, but it is not favorable to the rice production in the northeastern China, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and the southern China; the increase in sunshine duration has a positive effect on rice yield in the southwestern and northeastern regions; the increase of temperature has a positive effect on rice production in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, southern area and northwestern area, but exerts a significantly negative effect on rice production in the southwestern, the northeastern, and Huang-Huai-Hai areas.

Key words: climate change, rice yield, "economy-climate", model, regional heterogeneity

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