Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (9): 1133-1140.doi: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2019.0714

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Evaluation and Prediction of Nitrogen Resources Sustainable Utilization Based on the DPSIR Model in Quzhou County

WANG Fang-fang1, WANG Yan-hua1,2,3, CAI Zu-cong1,2,3, HUANG Yu1   

  1. 1. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;
    2. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210023, China
  • Received:2019-09-09 Published:2020-09-17

Abstract: Environmental problems in northern China due to low nitrogen use efficiency have become increasingly prominent. Taking the DPSIR (drive force-pressure-state-impact-response) model as frame, 38 indexes were selected to set up the index system of the evaluation for nitrogen resources sustainable use combining with the statistics of Quzhou County from 1997 to 2017. The sustainable utilization level of nitrogen resources in Quzhou County was evaluated, and a grey prediction model was used to predict the sustainable development trend of nitrogen resources in the study area. The results show that from 1997 to 2017, the driving force, state and influencing factors of nitrogen use evaluation values all increased, while the evaluation value of pressure factors decreased, and the evaluation values of response factors decreased first and then increased. The nitrogen resource system of Quzhou County generally developed from weak sustainable to basic sustainable development under the joint influence of multiple factors. The grey prediction model predicte that the sustainable use of nitrogen resources will be on the rise in the period of 2018-2030. The results of the scenario simulation indicate that the urbanization rate, per capita GDP, per capita net income of farmers, and per capita disposable income of urban areas could increase the comprehensive evaluation value of sustainable utilization of nitrogen resources in Quzhou County by 10%. In the process of economic development and urbanization of Quzhou County, the planting area of economic crops and the investment in treatment facilities should be increased to promote the recycling of waste nitrogen in the household consumption system, so as to maintain a high level of nitrogen resources sustainable utilization in Quzhou County.

Key words: Quzhou County, nitrogen, sustainable utilization, DPSIR model, prediction

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