LUCC Spatial Simulation of Urban Agglomeration in Central Yunnan

Taking the urban agglomeration in Central Yunnan Province as the research area, based on the LUCC data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, combined with correlation analysis, the potential LUCC driving factors were selected to construct the flu model to simulate the LUCC in the study area in 2035. On this basis, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and spatial pattern effects of LUCC in different time periods from 2000 to 2035 are analyzed. The results show that (1) the land use types in the study area are mainly dominated by cultivated land, forest land and grassland, and the overall pattern is relatively stable. From 2000 to 2020, the construction land mainly came from a large amount of occupation of cultivated land, and the change rate from 2010 to 2020 was significantly faster than that from 2000 to 2010; (2) According to the prediction, in the next 15 years from 2020 to 2035, the construction land will mainly come from the occupation of forest land, and the urban expansion has obvious direction; (3) The comprehensive degree of land use in most counties and cities shows an upward trend, and there is a decline in the comprehensive degree of land use in some counties and cities due to the implementation of the policy of returning farmland to forest and grassland; The hot spots of utilization degree change are mainly concentrated in the counties and cities in the middle and east, showing a trend of multi-center development; (4) The changes of landscape pattern index in each region are different. On the whole, the degree of landscape fragmentation increases and the diversity decreases. Under the background of western development strategy and accelerated urbanization process, this study discusses the land use characteristics of mountainous urban agglomeration in central Yunnan, simulates the future land use, and quantitatively analyzes the spatial pattern and its change effect, which is of great significance to formulate land space planning, realize "multiple compliance", and clarify the objectives of land space development and protection.