基于LEAP模型和KAYA模型的主城区碳达峰预测及不确定性分析

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2022.0205

Abstract

Abstract: Carbon (CO₂) emission is an important part of researches on urban carbon peak emission prediction. Accurate accounting of carbon emission is of great significance to achieve urban green transformation and development of urban industries and carbon neutrality. The industries in the main urban area are mainly based on living functions and Production R & D, and service industries, and there is a lack of independent statistical data such as energy consumption, which resulting in gaps in carbon emission verification. To this end, taking a municipal district in Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province as the research object, combined with the energy consumption statistics of Nanjing City from 2011 to 2020, this paper judges the carbon emission peaking situation in the municipal districts from the two aspects of "carbon emission influencing factors" and "terminal energy consumption calculation", The Kaya carbon emission identity and LEAP model were used to set different scenarios to predict the future carbon emission trend and peak time. The results show that:(1) From 2011 to 2020, energy consumption in the study area increased from 1 089 900 tons of standard coal to 2 220 200 tons of standard coal, and CO₂ emissions were still in a period of rapid growth. Carbon emissions in 2020 increased by 82.27% compared with 2011. However, the energy consumption intensity gradually decreased from 0.324 to 0.200 tons of standard coal per 10 000 yuan; the proportion of the use of fossil fuels gradually decreased, while the electricity consumption increased. (2) The carbon emission intensity of the study area in 2020 is 0.337 t·10 000 yuan^-1, which is lower than the average level of Nanjing (0.75 t·10 000 yuan^-1). By actively promote low-carbon transformation development, the research area will be able to achieve the goal of carbon emmision peaking by 2030. (3) GDP per capita and energy intensity are the two most important factors affecting urban carbon emissions. The research results provide a feasible accounting method for the prediction of carbon emission peaking in the main urban area, which has guiding significance for urban carbon emission accounting, emission reduction model optimization and emission reduction task allocation.

Key words: carbon emissions, main urban area, energy, scenario forecasts, carbon emission peaking

CLC Number:

X24
X196

DU Han-bei, ZHAO Li-jun, LIU Chen-wei, QIU Kuan-biao, LI Hai-dong. Prediction of Peaking Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Main City Areas Based on LEAP Model and KAYA Model and Analyses on Its Uncertainty[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2022, 38(8): 983-991.

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Prediction of Peaking Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Main City Areas Based on LEAP Model and KAYA Model and Analyses on Its Uncertainty

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