Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 188-196.doi: 10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2015.02.008

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Landscape Prediction of Yangtze Estuarine Wetlands in 2020 Under Different Scenarios

LI  Xi-Zhi, LI  Xiu-Zhen, REN  Lin-Jing, SHEN  Fang, YAN  Zhong-Zheng, HUANG  Xing   

  1. State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research,East China Normal University
  • Received:2014-07-15 Revised:2014-12-19 Online:2015-03-25 Published:2015-04-15
  • Contact: LI Xiu-Zhen,SHEN Fang State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research,East China Normal University;

Abstract: Based on the analysis of classified remote sensing images of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands of 1980-2010, landscapes of the wetlands (Chongming Dongtan, Nanhui Biantan and Jiuduansha) in 2020 under three different scenarios (ecological protection, current trend and intensified reclamation) were predicted using the Dyna-CLUE and CA models. Results show that by 2020, the total area of the wetlands outside the dike will have increased by 56 and 44 km2, and decreased by 7 km2, respectively, under the three different scenarios. The area ratios of Phragmites/Spartina/Scirpus will have changed from 36:38:26 to 46:34:20, 38:38:24 and 38:37:25 respectively by 2020. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the area of the estuarine wetlands in Chongming Dongtan, Nanhui Biantan and Jiuduansha will have increased by 7 , 43 and 6 km2, respectively. Conversely, under the scenario of current trend or intensified reclamation, the area of estuarine wetlands will have been on a declining trend. The results of thestudy can provide some reference for the proper utilization and protection of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands.

Key words: Dyna-CLUE, CA model, Landscape prediction, Yangtze Estuarine wetlands

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