Landscape Prediction of Yangtze Estuarine Wetlands in 2020 Under Different Scenarios

Based on the analysis of classified remote sensing images of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands of 1980-2010, landscapes of the wetlands (Chongming Dongtan, Nanhui Biantan and Jiuduansha) in 2020 under three different scenarios (ecological protection, current trend and intensified reclamation) were predicted using the Dyna-CLUE and CA models. Results show that by 2020, the total area of the wetlands outside the dike will have increased by 56 and 44 km², and decreased by 7 km², respectively, under the three different scenarios. The area ratios of Phragmites/Spartina/Scirpus will have changed from 36:38:26 to 46:34:20, 38:38:24 and 38:37:25 respectively by 2020. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the area of the estuarine wetlands in Chongming Dongtan, Nanhui Biantan and Jiuduansha will have increased by 7 , 43 and 6 km², respectively. Conversely, under the scenario of current trend or intensified reclamation, the area of estuarine wetlands will have been on a declining trend. The results of thestudy can provide some reference for the proper utilization and protection of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands.