Abstract: In order to explore the relationship between land use and carbon storage, and to improve the regional carbon sequestration capacity, Huangpi District, Wuhan, a metropolitan suburb was taken as the research object. The Markov-FLUS coupling model was used to simulate the land use change under the natural development scenario, the economic priority development scenario and the comprehensive development scenario, and the InVEST model was applied to quantitatively study the effect of land use change on carbon storage under different scenarios. The results show that, from 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land and forest land in Huangpi District decreased by 63.916 and 3.549 km², respectively, while the construction land and water area increased by 63.826 and 5.406 km², respectively. The regional land use changes drastically, and the total area of transferred land is 76.041 km², of which the transferred out area of cultivated land is 64.486 km². From 2000 to 2020 (especially from 2010 to 2015), the carbon storage in Huangpi District decreased by 4.27 Tg, but the overall ecological background was good, and the average land carbon density was high. The conversion of cultivated land to construction land under the three scenarios is still the main reason for the reduction of regional carbon storage, but the reduction is the smallest under the comprehensive development scenario. The Moran index of land use intensity and carbon storage at a scale of 1 km×1 km showed a significant negative correlation, and the local autocorrelation showed that the two synergies accounted for the largest proportion under the comprehensive development scenario. These findings indicate that the suburbs of the metropolis should adhere to the bottom line of ecological security in the future development and construction process, so as to slow down the rapid loss of carbon storage and take the path of high-quality development.

Key words: metropolitan suburbs, land use change, carbon storage, Markov-FLUS model, land use intensity