“双碳”目标实现的省域实践：以浙江为例

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2023.0008

Abstract

Abstract: Zhejiang Province's achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality is an internal requirement for implementing the new development concept, building a new development pattern, and promoting high-quality development, as proposed by the central government. Based on statistical data on energy consumption in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2019, a combination of the LEAP model and the STIRPAT model was used as a research tool to identify the main factors influencing carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province and to predict the carbon emission trends, peak time, and emission reduction paths for six different scenarios from 2015 to 2060. The results show that upgrading the energy structure, improving energy efficiency, and deepening the digital economy in high-carbon industries are the key driving forces for Zhejiang Province's current low-carbon transformation and development. To achieve the "Dual-Carbon" target, all end-use energy sectors need to achieve low-carbon transformation, with priority given to the electricity, industry, and transportation sectors, followed by commerce, residential life, housing, agriculture, and other sectors. With the comprehensive effect of various energy-saving and emission reduction measures, the carbon peak time for the Partial Electricity Substitution (PES) scenario and the Comprehensive Electricity Substitution (CES) scenario in Zhejiang Province is 2024 and 2025, respectively, with peak emissions of 388 million and 370 million tons, achieving carbon neutrality as scheduled. Considering the problem of carbon leakage in carbon accounting, Zhejiang Province should start from the PES scenario, strive to reach the carbon peak in 2025, gradually increase the proportion of renewable energy in its purchased electricity, and at the same time, play the role of the digital economy in low-carbon governance. From 2030 to 2035, it should accelerate the transition to the CES scenario, and achieve carbon neutrality as scheduled, or even earlier, by using carbon capture, carbon storage, and other decarbonization technologies in various end-use energy sectors.

Key words: double carbon target, STIRPAT model, LEAP model, emission reduction pathway

CLC Number:

LI Qing-yao, ZHANG Yong, HU Min-quan, YU Jie. Provincial Practice of Achieving the “Dual Carbon” Target: Taking Zhejiang Province as an Example[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2024, 40(2): 191-204.

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Provincial Practice of Achieving the “Dual Carbon” Target: Taking Zhejiang Province as an Example

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