东盟国家碳排放动态演变及环境库兹涅茨曲线实证检验分析

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2023.0685

Abstract

Abstract: Studying on the dynamic change of carbon emissions in ASEAN member states and analyzing the quantitative relationship between carbon emissions and socioeconomic development can provide a scientific support for China-ASEAN environmental cooperation and other issues. Based on the time series data released by EDGAR and UN Data, the study analyzed the emission structure and trend of ASEAN's carbon emissions. Furthermore, the Mann-Kendall trend test was adopted to explore the carbon peaking situation in ASEAN member states. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model was applied to test the relationship between ASEAN member states' per capita carbon emissions and GDP per capita. The results show that: From 1970 to 2021, the total carbon emissions of the ASEAN increased from 1.22×10⁸ t to 1.74×10⁹ t. The top five emitters, including Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, accounted for nearly 90% of the total carbon emissions. From 1970 to 2021, the carbon emissions of the power, industrial combustion, others, transportation and building sectors in ASEAN increased by 38.0, 13.6, 12.7, 9.1 and 1.9 times, respectively. The power sector is the primary source of carbon emissions in ASEAN, accounting for more than 40% of total emission. Over the years from 1970 to 2021, the carbon emissions of ASEAN and its member countries have mostly shown an increasing trend every decade. The trend analysis result since 2010 show that Brunei and Thailand may be the earliest ASEAN states to peak carbon emissions. Except Brunei the EKC curves for per capita carbon emissions and GDP per capita are highly parallel for ASEAN member countries. The impact of socioeconomic development on carbon emissions follows the mode of "facilitating-suppressing-facilitating", with different inflection points in different countries. Therefore, it is recommended that China to strengthen cooperation in clean energy and power sector with ASEAN member states, as well as maintain continuous investment and policy continuity in environment protection.

Key words: ASEAN, dynamic change of carbon emissions, environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) test

CLC Number:

X321

LAN Yan, HUA Rui-xiang, JING Yi-ran, JIA Xi-chun, LI Jia-wen. Dynamic Change of Carbon Emissions and Environmental Kuznets Curve Empirical Test Analysis in the ASEAN[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2024, 40(3): 303-312.

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Dynamic Change of Carbon Emissions and Environmental Kuznets Curve Empirical Test Analysis in the ASEAN

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