中国粮食生产的国际竞争力研究

    Research on the International Competitiveness of China's Grain Production

    • 摘要: 近年来中国粮食进口量巨大,可能对国家粮食安全产生冲击,评估中国粮食产业的国际竞争力对国家粮食安全具有重要意义。选取美国为对比研究对象,借助中美农产品成本收益数据,从土地生产率、生产成本及销售价格3个方面探讨了中国粮食产业的国际竞争力。结果表明:1998-2016年,中国主要粮食作物的土地生产率总体呈现波动上升态势。与美国相比,除小麦之外,中国稻谷、玉米、大豆的土地生产率均低于美国,3个品种在研究期内与美国的平均差距分别为16.60%、30.00%和33.08%,而且玉米和大豆2个品种的差距存在进一步扩大的趋势。中国玉米和大豆的生产成本一直高于美国,稻谷和小麦生产成本于2011年超过美国,此后中国粮食生产成本全面超越美国,且两者成本差距不断扩大,中美粮食成本差距由大至小依次为大豆、玉米、小麦、稻谷。中国粮食生产成本过高主要源于人工费用和土地租金,两者占到总成本的一半以上,尤其是占比为30%~40%的人工费用,远远高于美国(人工费用占比不到10%)。受到成本对价格的决定作用影响,中国粮食售价全面超过美国。为提升中国粮食产业竞争力,需要进一步提升农业机械化水平以替代不断上涨的人工成本;完善土地流转服务体系,降低流转交易费用;注重提高粮食单产水平,尤其是大豆等低产作物。

       

      Abstract: In recent years, China has imported a large amount of grains from international market, which may threaten the national food security. It is of great significance for the national food security to investigate the international competitiveness of China's grain industry. Taking the United States (US) as the comparative study object, with the help of costs-returns data of Chinese and American agricultural products, this paper discusses the international competitiveness of China's grain industry from three aspects: land productivity, production cost and sales price. The results show that: 1) From 1998 to 2016, the land productivity of major food crops in China showed a fluctuating upward trend. Compared with the US, except for wheat, the land productivity of rice, corn and soybean in China was lower than that in the US, and the average differences between China and the US during the study period were 16.60% (rice), 30.00% (corn) and 33.08% (soybean), respectively. At the same time, the gaps in corn and soybean present a widening trend. 2) The costs of corn and soybean production in China have always been higher than that in US. China's rice and wheat production costs surpassed the US in 2011. Since then, the cost of food crops production in China has comprehensively surpassed that of the US, and the gap between them has been widening. In 2016, the gap between China and US in grain production costs, from large to small, was soybean, corn, wheat, and rice. 3) The high cost of grain production in China is mainly due to labor costs and land rent, which account for more than half of the total cost, especially the labor cost (30%-40%), which is much higher than that in the US (less than 10%). Since the cost of grain production plays a critical role in price of grains in the market, the price of grains of China has fully surpassed that of the US. 4) In order to enhance the competitiveness of China's grain industry, it is necessary to further enhance the level of agricultural mechanization to reduce rising labor costs, improve the land transfer service system, reduce transfer transaction costs, and pay more attention to improving the level of grain yield per unit area, especially the low-yield crops such as soybeans.

       

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