近30 a青藏高原草地春季物候动态及其对极端温度的敏感性

    Spatial-temporal Dynamics of Grassland Spring Phenology and Its Response to Extreme Temperature in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the Last 30 Years

    • 摘要: 植被物候被认为是追踪植被对气候变化响应的关键指标, 在气候快速变化的情境下, 明确极端温度对不同类型植被物候的干扰机制对未来应对极端温度事件具有重要意义。研究基于GIMMS NDVI、草地类型和极端温度数据, 辅以Sen斜率、变异系数、Hurst指数、地理探测器和偏相关分析法探究了青藏高原1986-2015年不同草地植被类型生长季始期(SOS)时空动态、SOS对不同极端温度指标的敏感性程度。结果表明, 近30 a青藏高原草地植被: (1)SOS集中在1 a中第120~130天, 即五月上旬至中旬。荒漠草原、高山亚高山平地草原和山地草甸SOS较迟, 集中在第125~145天, 平地草原、草甸和高山亚高山草地SOS较早, 基本在第130天之前。(2)SOS总体以提前趋势为主, 速率集中在0~±1.5 d·a-1, 但SOS变化波动性较大。未来一段时间内SOS变化趋势与1986-2015年相反, 其中在波动性较小区域以提前趋势为主, 波动较大区域呈推迟趋势。(3)草甸SOS对极端温度变化最敏感, 其余依次为平地草原、高山亚高山草甸和高山亚高山平地草原, 荒漠草原对极端温度敏感度最小。(4)草地SOS与变冷相关的极端温度因子以弱正相关为主, 与变暖相关的极端温度因子以弱负相关为主, 尤其在海拔较高的喜马拉雅山脉、昆仑山脉、天山山脉和横断山脉的负相关系数出现极高值。以上研究结果可为青藏高原草地物候影响因素提供新的认识, 为草籽育种、草地生长监测和应对气候异常、促进植被生态恢复制定行之有效的防灾减灾措施。

       

      Abstract: Change in phenology is among the first signals of adjustments in species responses to climate anomalies and is of great significance to clarify the interference mechanism of extreme temperature on grassland phenology. In Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, plant development is commonly regulated by both temperature and precipitation. To better understand how grassland phenology may respond to extreme temperature events, the spatial-temporal dynamics of start of growing season (SOS) and the sensitivity to different extreme temperature events of different grassland were explored based on GIMMS NDVI, grassland types and extreme temperature data on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau from 1986 to 2015. In this study, with the assistance of Sen gradient, variation coefficient, Hurst index, geographical detector and partial correlation analysis, the spatio-temporal patterns of the start of the growing season (SOS) in the grassland were investigated by using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) from 1986 to 2015. At the same time, the extreme temperature regulating grassland spring phenology under the ongoing conditions of climate change was analyzed. The results show that: (1) the SOS concentrated in the period of 120-130 days of the year. The SOS appeared first in plain grassland, meadow and alpine and subalpine meadow, basically before the 130th day. The SOS of desert grassland, alpine and subalpine plain grassland and slope meadow appeared late, concentrated in the period of 125-145 days. (2) The SOS showed a significant advancing tendency in all types, and the rate concentrated at 0~±1.5 d·a-1. The predicted change trend of SOS in the coming period of time is opposite to the last change trend. (3) SOS of meadow was the most sensitive to extreme temperature, followed by plain grassland, alpine and subalpine meadow, alpine and subalpine plain grassland, and desert grassland was the least sensitive to extreme temperature. (4) The correlation between cooling related extreme temperature and grassland SOS is mainly weakly positive correlation, and the correlation between warming related extreme temperature and grassland SOS is mainly weakly negative correlation, and extreme high negative correlation exists especially in the Himalayas, Kunlun Mountains, Tianshan Mountains and Hengduan Mountains with high altitude. The results of this study could provide new understanding on the impacting factors to the phenology of grassland of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and could also provide effective measures for grassland disaster prevention and remediation, for grass seeds breeding, grassland development monitoring, climate anomalies responding and vegetation ecological restoring.

       

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