中国省际碳排放强度时空演变与多因子驱动机制

    Spatio-temporal Evolution and Multi-factor Driving Mechanisms of Inter-provincial Carbon Emission Intensity in China

    • 摘要: 作为衡量节能减排的重要指标, 碳排放强度在促进绿色低碳转型中起着至关重要的作用。依据2000-2021年30个省份面板数据, 运用探索性空间数据分析、核密度估计、标准差椭圆分析及地理探测器方法对中国省际碳排放强度时空动态演变特征、空间集聚效应与多因子驱动机制进行全面分析。结果表明, 2000-2021年省际碳排放强度总体呈先缓后急的下降趋势, 时间尺度上, 从38.464 t·十万元-1(2000年)下降到12.872 t·十万元-1(2021年), 同时各地区碳排放强度均呈下降趋势; 空间尺度上表现为西部地区碳排放强度最高, 其次为东北地区、中部地区, 东部地区碳排放强度最低。碳排放强度的核密度曲线整体呈左移趋势, 主峰形态的高度变高、宽度变窄, 并呈多峰分布, 说明碳排放强度处于动态减少趋势, 且各省份碳排放强度绝对差异缩小。碳排放强度呈东北-西南的空间分布特征, 重心转移方向为西南-东北-西北-北。碳排放强度空间格局呈现北高南低, 有显著的空间依赖性且集聚性不断增强; 热点分析集聚效应为东南冷、西北热。碳排放强度驱动因子中, 外商投资水平和能源消费结构对碳排放强度影响程度最大, 且多因子交互驱动作用大于单因子作用, 因此降碳减排工作要综合考虑多因子驱动机制。研究结果说明, 制定和实施地域性低碳策略至关重要, 根据驱动因素影响程度提出针对性降碳措施, 可为实现双碳目标提供参考。

       

      Abstract: As an important indicator to measure energy conservation and emission reduction, carbon emission intensity plays a vital role in promoting the transition to a green and low-carbon economy. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2021, and by using exploratory spatial data analysis, kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse analysis and geodetector, this paper comprehensively analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics, spatial agglomeration effect and multi-factor driving mechanism of carbon emission intensity in China. The results show that during 2000 to 2021, the inter-provincial carbon emission intensity showed a downward trend of "first slow and then rapid", and the time scale decreased from 38.464 t·(104 yuan)-1(2000) to 12.872 t·(104 yuan)-1(2021), meanwhile the carbon emission intensity of all regions also showed a downward trend. On a spatial scale the western region exhibited the highest carbon emission intensity, followed by the northeastern region and the central region, while the eastern region had the lowest carbon emission intensity. The kernel density curve of carbon emission intensity shows an overall leftward shift, with the main peak becoming taller and narrower, and exhibiting a multi-peak distribution, indicating that the carbon emission intensity is in a dynamic decreasing trend, and the absolute difference in carbon emission intensity among provinces is narrowing. Carbon emission intensity shows the spatial distribution characteristics of northeast-southwest and the center of gravity transfer direction is southwest-northeast-northwest-north, mainly concentrated in Shanxi Province and Shaanxi Province. The spatial pattern of carbon emission intensity is high in the north and low in the south, with significant spatial dependence and increasing agglomeration; The hot spot analysis shows an agglomeration effect of "southeast cold-northwest heat". Among the driving factors of carbon emission intensity, the level of foreign investment and structure of energy consumption have the most significant impact on carbon emission intensity, moreover, the interactive effects of multiple factors are greater than those of single factors. Efforts for reducing carbon emissions should comprehensively consider the multi-factor driving mechanism. The research results indicate that it is crucial to formulate and implement regional low-carbon strategies. Proposing targeted carbon reduction measures based on the influence levels of driving factors can provide valuable references for achieving the dual carbon goals of China.

       

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