青海省畜牧业发展战略之研讨(Ⅰ)

ON THE STRATEGY OF THE ANIMAL HUSBANDRY DEVELOPMENT FOR QINGHAI PROVINCE (Ⅰ)

  • 摘要: 本文用灰色系统理论,利用青海省30年来畜牧业发展的历史数据和研究资料,建立了灰色系统动态趋势分析模型,并进行了定性和定量的系统分析,对青海省畜牧业发展战略提出了建设性意见。其模型分析结果:(1)在目前草场第一性生产力水平下,最大载畜量为3879.3444万个羊单位。(2)牛、骆驼和猪有不同程度的上升趋势;而羊、马、骡和驴有不同程度的下降趋势。

     

    Abstract: Using the theory of grey system, an analytical model of dynamic tendency has been established in this,paper, based on the 30-year historical data of the development of animal husbandry of Qinghai Province.Qualitative and quantitative system analysis have been made and some constructive suggestions for the development strategies of animal husbandry for that province prpposed. The models showed: i. The maximun carrying capacity was 38 793 444 sheep units according to the present primary productivity of the grassland. 2. The number of cattle, camel and pig had an increasing tendency in different degrees, while that of sheep,, horse, mule, and donky decreased.

     

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