探索坝上生态经济良性循环的途径——河北省沽源牧场生态经济系统仿真
INVESTIGATION ON THE WAYS OF REALIZING ECOLOMICALLY SOUND RECYCLING IN BASHANG REGION——EMULATION OF THE ECOLOMIC SYSTEMS FOR GUYUAN RANCH IN HUBEI PROVINCE
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摘要: 本文依据生态经济学原理,以河北省沽源牧场为例,用系统工程的模型方法探讨实现坝上生态经济系统良性循环的途径。作者采用系统动态模型作为主干模型,表现整个系统的结构和主要反馈关系,用蒙特卡罗法模拟风蚀对土地肥力的影响,综合运用定性定量技术、系数模拟、灰色系统模型等方法进行预测,借助电子计算机建立一个能够反映坝上生态经济系统发展势态和变化规律的“生态经济实验室”;并以实际工作经验和定性分析为基础,制订若干方案,根据计算机仿真结果进行综合评判,寻求农牧业生产与自然环境相互促进,持续发展的策略和措施。Abstract: According to the principles of ecolomics, taking Guyuan Ranch of Hebei province as a study site, the method for realizing profitable ecolomic recycling of the Bashang region has been investigated through modeling of systems engineering. The system dynamic model was applied as the main model which expressed the general feedback relations of the whole system structure. Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the impact of erosion on soil fertility. A comprehensive integration of qualitative and quantitative analysis, coefficient simulation, and grey system model was used for prediction. An "Ecolomic Laboratory" has been established to reflect the trand of ecolomic development of that region and its regularity of variation. Several programs have been formulated based on the practical experiences and qualitative analysis. A comprehensive evalution was carried out according to the results of computer emulation to seek for strategy and measures of continual development and mutual promotion of agriculture and animal production consistent with natural environmental conditions.