九龙江流域经济发展与河流水质时空关联分析

    A Spatio-Temporal Correlation Analysis of Water Quality and Economic Growth in the Jiulong River Basin

    • 摘要: 以闽西南地区的九龙江流域为例,综合采用数理统计、GIS和环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)方法,对该流域1981-2009年经济发展与河流水质变化进行时空关联分析。结果表明,九龙江流域呈现“第1产业缓增,第2、3产业产值增加较快”的总体经济格局,农业污染突出;农业种植面积呈现先增加后减少趋势,流域氮、磷肥平均施用强度呈线性增加趋势;氮、磷肥平均折纯施用量之比从1981年的4:1下降到2009年的2:1,引起水化学改变并增加水华发生风险;各县(市、区)污染源结构存在明显差异,河流水质变化和沿程分布与流域社会经济布局有很好的空间相关性;北溪流域畜禽养殖业的过快发展、西溪流域以经济作物为主的农业种植结构和高强度施肥、低效率利用是导致河流水质从20世纪90年代开始富营养化的主要原因;EKC曲线尚未出现明显拐点,若农业污染不能得到有效控制,流域水环境将持续恶化;九龙江水质演变规律是流域社会经济布局、污染源排放强度和方式发生变化的综合作用结果。

       

      Abstract: Based on the 1981-2009 dataset of the socio-economic and water environment of the Jiulong River Basin,an important region of the Western Taiwan Strait Economic Zone,the spatio-temporal relationship of river water quality with economic growth in the basin was analyzed,using statistical tools,GIS technique and environmnetal Kuznets curve(EKC)method.Compared with the rapidly growing secondary and tertiary industries,the slowly but steadily growing primary industry stood out in pollution creation.It increaed first and then decreased in cultivated area,and showed a linear rise in mean N and P fertilization intensity.Its N:P ratio(on a net nutrient basis)in fertilization declined from 4:1 in 1981 to 2:1 in 2009,which led to changes in nutrient stoichiometry of the river water,thus increasing the risk of algal bloom in the river.Marked differences existed between counties(cities or districts)in structure of pollution sources.The changes in water quality and the distribution of pollution along the river were closely related to the disposition of the socio-economy in space.The overgrowth of animal husbandry in the northern part of the Jiulong River Basin and the cash crop-based agricultural structure and the highly intensive,but low-in-use-efficiency fertilization in the western part of the Jiulong River Basin,were the causes triggering degradation(eutrophication)of the water quality since the 1990s.So far, the EKC curve has not yet shown any apparent turning point,indicating that water quality of the basin will go on degrading unless the pollution from agriculture is effectively controlled.

       

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