长三角地区乡村发展评价及时空分异特征

Evaluation and Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Rural Development in the Yangtze River Delta, China

  • 摘要: 以长三角地区作为典型案例地,构建乡村发展评价指标体系,运用改进熵值法测度2000-2018年长三角地区乡村发展水平;综合运用GIS空间分析、ESDA模型等方法分析2000-2018年长三角地区乡村发展分异特征,并运用多元回归模型揭示研究期间长三角乡村发展时空分异的影响因素。结果表明:长三角地区乡村发展水平呈现出持续提升的演化态势,长三角乡村发展东-西向呈递减态势,南-北向呈倒"U"型空间形态。长三角乡村发展表现出"俱乐部趋同"的空间分布趋势;乡村发展局部热点区主要集聚在苏锡常沪、杭绍甬等地区,而冷点区主要分布在皖北地区,形成稳定的低值集聚塌陷格局。经济发展水平、农业现代化、城镇化及交通可达性是影响研究期间长三角乡村发展时空分异的驱动因子,政府政策因素对研究期间长三角乡村发展时空分异表现为宏观的导向效应。

     

    Abstract: This study constructed a system for evaluation of regional rural development using the Yangtze River Delta region of China as an example. The improved entropy method was used to assess the level of rural development, and GIS spatial analysis, ESDA model, and a multiple regression model were used to analyze the differentiating characteristics and influencing factors of rural development in the Yangtze River Delta during 2000-2018. Results show that rural development exhibited an evolving trend of continuous improvement. Rural development decreased from east to west and an inverted U-type spatial pattern was presented from south to north, and the rural development of Yangtze River Delta showed positive autocorrelation. Local hot spots were concentrated primarily in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou-Shanghai and Hangzhou-Shaoxing-Ningbo regions, while cold spots were distributed mostly in northern Anhui, forming a stable low-value clustering and differentiation pattern. Economic social development, agricultural modernization, urbanization, and traffic accessibility were important factors affecting the spatiotemporal differentiation of rural development, while policy and institutional factors had a macro guiding effect on rural development differentiation in the Yangtze River Delta region.

     

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