基于MaxEnt的加拿大一枝黄花在中国的潜在分布区预测

    MaxEnt-Based Prediction of Potential Distribution of Solidago canadensis in China

    • 摘要: 基于采样后的加拿大一枝黄花(Solidago canadensis)在北半球的分布数据,以温度和降水作为预测的环境因子,以MaxEnt模型作为物种适生性预测模型,预测加拿大一枝黄花在我国的潜在分布。结果表明:加拿大一枝黄花在我国有广泛的潜在分布区,目前的实际分布远未达其最大潜在分布范围,仍有可能继续扩散。加拿大一枝黄花主要适生区包括上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、江西、福建、重庆、贵州、四川省东部、广东和广西2省北部、云南省东北部、山西和陕西2省南部地区。必须采取有效措施阻止加拿大一枝黄花扩散蔓延。

       

      Abstract: Based on the sampled distribution data of Solidago canadensis in northern hemisphere,research was carried out to predict potential distribution of Solidago canadensis in China using the MaxEnt model as prediction model,and temperature and precipitation as environment variables.Results show that Solidago canadensis may infest an area much larger than that of its actual distribution now,suggesting that Solidago canadensis will continue to expand in China.Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Anhui,Shandong,Henan,Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Chongqing,Guizhou,eastern Sichuan,northern Guangdong and Guangxi,northeastern Yunnan,southern Shanxi and Shaanxi are the main suitable areas.Effective measures must be taken to protect these areas and others from Solidago canadensis invasion.

       

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