基于小波分析的嫩江、哈尔滨夏季降雨规律研究

    Wavelet-Based Analysis of Characteristics of Summer Rainfall in Nenjiang and Harbin

    • 摘要: 基于48 a来的夏季降雨资料,选用Morlet小波分析方法对嫩江、哈尔滨夏季降雨序列的多时间尺度进行研究。结果表明:哈尔滨近年来夏季降雨在29~38 a尺度周期变化最明显,模值最大,能量最强;嫩江夏季降雨在19~30 a周期变化较强,能量值较大;2个周期变化都具有随时间推移能量进一步加大的趋势。当前嫩江、哈尔滨夏季降雨均处于枯水大周期内,在未来较长时间里,夏季降雨量将低于多年平均降雨量。

       

      Abstract: Based on 48 years of summer rainfall data,Morlet wavelet analysis was done of the sequence of summer rainfall in Nenjiang and Harbin,on a multi-time scale.Results show that in recent years,the summer rainfall in Harbin displayed the most apparent cyclical variation on a 29-38-year scale,the largest modulus,and the strongest energy;and the summer rainfall in Nenjiang did an obvious cyclical variation on a 19-30-year scale,and its energy value is quite large.Both the two cyclical variations showed a trend of being stronger in energy with the time.Presently,both the summer rainfalls in Nenjiang and Harbin are in a long cyclical period of low-water.It is predicted that in a relatively long period the summer rainfall will be lower than the average of the past 48 years.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回