国家重点帮扶县乡村振兴潜力评价、分类识别与优化策略

Rural Revitalization Potential Evaluation, Classification Identification and Optimization Strategies of National Key Assistance Counties

  • 摘要: 国家乡村振兴重点帮扶县作为乡村振兴的区域短板, 在当前巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的背景下, 研究其乡村振兴潜力可为精准推动乡村发展、助力全国乡村全面振兴提供科学依据, 对乡村地域系统的可持续发展具有重要意义。以160个国家乡村振兴重点帮扶县为研究区, 从本底适应能力与转型发展能力两方面构建乡村振兴潜力评价指标体系, 基于ArcGIS空间化结果与空间自相关分析法研究其空间格局特征, 采用主成分分析法识别关键因子, 结合乡村振兴潜力的分布特征与关键因子识别结果, 对重点帮扶县进行类型划分, 并针对不同类型县域提出乡村振兴针对性优化策略。研究结果表明: (1)2020年160个国家重点帮扶县乡村振兴潜力空间上呈现内蒙古自治区部分县域高值集聚、西南与西北地区县域普遍偏低的分布格局, 各维度潜力空间分异明显。(2)重点帮扶县的环境、人口、资源等本底适应能力是乡村振兴潜力的主导因子, 金融发展水平、产业结构优化度、创新活力等转型发展能力是潜力提升的关键驱动因子。(3)基于以上研究结果, 按照"振兴潜力分级-优劣条件辨识"的方法, 将重点帮扶县划分为综合落后型、环境本底制约型、经济本底制约型、内力带动型、产业转型发展型和创新驱动型6类, 并为各类县域乡村振兴提供具体决策参考。本文构建的"转型-适应"与乡村振兴的逻辑框架, 综合考量了乡村地域系统的本底基础与转型能力, 为当前乡村振兴领域的评价分析框架与理论方法提供了一种新思路。

     

    Abstract: National rural revitalization key-assistance counties are the regional shortcomings of rural revitalization. Against the backdrop of consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation and effectively connecting with rural revitalization, studying their rural revitalization potential provides scientific insights for targeted rural development and contributes to the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas nationwide, thereby holding significant implications for the sustainable development of rural regional systems. Focusing on 160 national key assistance counties, this study constructs a rural revitalization potential evaluation index system from two dimensions: baseline adaptability and transformational development capacity. Based on ArcGIS spatialization results and spatial autocorrelation analysis, the study examines the spatial pattern characteristics of revitalization potential. Principal component analysis is employed to identify key factors. Based on the distribution characteristics of rural revitalization potential and the identification of key factors, this study classifies key assistance counties and proposes targeted strategies for rural revitalization according to different types of counties. The results include: (1) In 2020, the rural revitalization potential of the 160 national key assistance counties exhibited a distribution pattern characterized by high values in some counties of Inner Mongolia and generally low values in southwest and northwest China, with each dimension of revitalization potential showing distinct spatial differentiation characteristics. (2) The background conditions of the national key assistance counties, such as environment, population and resources, are dominant drivers of rural revitalization potential, while transformational development capacities such as financial development, industrial structure and innovation vitality serve as key drivers for potential enhancement. (3) Based on the above research results, following the method of "revitalization potential grading-identification of advantages and disadvantages", the key assistance counties are divided into six categories: comprehensively underdeveloped, environmentally constrained, economically constrained, internal driven, industrial transformation-driven, and innovation-driven. Specific policy recommendations are provided for each type. The logical framework of "Transformation-Adaptation" and rural revitalization constructed in this paper not only comprehensively considers the baseline conditions and transformation capacity of rural regional systems, but also provides a new perspective for the current evaluation and analysis frameworks, as well as theoretical approaches in the field of rural revitalization.

     

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