Abstract:
The carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystemsplays a crucial role in mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions and serves as a key strategy for China to meet its "peak carbon dioxide emissions" and "carbon neutrality" targets. To investigate the dynamics of China′s terrestrial ecosystems in the context of carbon neutrality, this study utilizes models from the International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) alongside observational data. The model selection process is based on the performance of nine CMIP6 Earth system models in simulating key terrestrial ecosystem parameters—Leaf Area Index (LAI), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP)—during the historical reference period (1992-2011). The multi-model ensemble (MME) approach is then employed to simulate changes in LAI, GPP, and NPP, including their overall, seasonal and interannual variations, under a future carbon neutrality scenario. Additionally, the study analyzes the influence of climate factors (precipitation, temperature, humidity, and solar radiation) and human activities on these ecosystem parameters. The results show that MME can effectively capture the spatiotemporal distribution of annual average LAI, GPP and NPP across China, though some overestimations remain. Compared to the historical reference period, the carbon neutrality period shows an overall increase in these parameters, with average increases of 0.30 m
2·m
-2 for LAI, 196.84 g·m
-2 for GPP, and 101.91 g·m
-2 for NPP. The magnitude of these increases diminishes from southeast to northwest. Seasonally, the largest increases are observed in summer (0.37 m
2·m
-2 for LAI, 78.06 g·m
-2 for GPP, and 42.12 g·m
-2 for NPP), while the smallest occur in winter (0.20 m
2·m
-2 for LAI, 16.69 g·m
-2 for GPP, and 7.11 g·m
-2 for NPP). The southeastern and northeastern regions show the highest rates of increase. In terms of interannual variations, the Yangtze River Basin, Hainan, and Taiwan exhibit a consistent upward trend in ecosystem parameters, while significant declines are observed in Guangxi, Guangdong, and southwestern Yunnan. Factor Contribution analysis reveals that precipitation primarily drives changes in LAI, whereas human activities dominate trends in GPP and NPP. These findings suggest that, during future carbon neutrality periods, the greening and carbon sequestration capacity of China′s terrestrial ecosystems will likely improve, providing valuable insights for China′s carbon neutrality goals and broader climate change research