基于气象因素调整的宿迁市PM2.5、PM10和O3趋势变化分析

Analysis of PM2.5, PM10 and O3 Trend Changes in Suqian City Based on Meteorological Factor Adjustment

  • 摘要: 环境空气污染水平通常受污染源排放和气象条件的共同影响,为了精确识别污染源排放对环境空气污染物质量浓度的影响,必须消除气象因素的干扰。本研究基于Kolmogorov-Zurbenko(KZ)滤波法分析了2020年3月1日至2024年3月1日宿迁市PM2.5、PM10和O3质量浓度的各时间分量随时间及季节变化的特征。针对不同的环境空气污染物,构建性能较优的回归模型进行气象因素调整,定量评估气象条件和污染源排放对环境空气污染物质量浓度变化的贡献。结果表明: (1)仅受污染源排放影响的PM2.5长期分量呈平稳趋势,PM10长期分量呈波动下降趋势,O3长期分量呈波动上升趋势。(2)与2020年3月1日至2021年3月1日相比,2023年3月1日至2024年3月1日污染源排放和气象条件对PM2.5质量浓度变化的贡献值分别为0.46和1.27 μg·m-3,对PM10质量浓度变化的贡献值分别为-3.36和3.58 μg·m-3,对O3质量浓度变化的贡献值分别为5.25和-2.70 μg·m-3。研究指出,污染源排放和气象条件对不同环境空气污染物质量浓度变化的贡献存在差异,宿迁市在实践中应根据不同环境空气污染物的特性制定针对性的治理措施。

     

    Abstract: Air pollution concentration levels are typically dependent on both emissions from pollution sources and meteorological conditions. To accurately assess the impact of emission changes on pollutant mass concentrations, it is essential to reduce the interference from meteorological factors. In this study, the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko(KZ)filtering method is applied to analyze the temporal and seasonal characteristics of the time components of PM2.5, PM10 and O3 mass concentrations in Suqian from March 1, 2020 to March 1, 2024. For each pollutant, an optimal regression model is developed to adjust for meteorological factors, enabling quantitative evaluation of the respective contributions of pollution source emissions and meteorological conditions to the observed concentration trends. The results indicate that the long-term component of PM2.5, driven primarily by pollution source emissions, remained relatively stable. In contrast, the long-term component of PM10 showed a fluctuating downward trend, while for O3 it showed a fluctuating upward trend. Compared with the period from March 1, 2020 to March 1, 2021, the contributions of pollution source emissions and meteorological conditions to the PM2.5 trend during March 1, 2023 to March 1, 2024 are 0.46 and 1.27 μg·m-3, respectively, for PM10, the corresponding contributions are -3.36 and 3.58 μg·m-3, while for O3 they are 5.25 and -2.70 μg·m-3. These findings suggest that the relative impacts of pollution source emissions and meteorological conditions differ substantially across pollutants, underscoring the need for pollutant-specific and targeted air quality management strategies.

     

/

返回文章
返回