青藏高原藏羚和藏原羚生境重叠及时空演变

Habitat Overlap and Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Pantholops hodgsonii and Procapra picticaudata on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

  • 摘要: 阐明同域分布的近缘物种在生境选择及其重叠关系,预测未来气候变化对物种生境的影响趋势,对于深化对物种行为的理解以及实施多物种生境的综合管理具有至关重要的意义。通过实地调查和网络检索相结合的方式,获得75个藏羚和82个藏原羚在青藏高原的有效分布位点,并结合可能影响两物种生境选择的18个关键环境变量,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)对当前情境下两物种的适宜生境和生境重叠进行了研究,并预测了未来气候情景下两物种潜在适宜生境分布的时空变化和发展趋势。结果表明,藏羚和藏原羚适宜生境面积分别为1 108 587和1 001 295 km2,重叠区域面积为486 111 km2,重叠水平较低。主要环境因子对两物种生境选择既有一定的相似性,也存在较大的差异性。未来气候情景下两物种的适生区范围与当前基本一致,且分布质心有向西南方向迁移的趋势。与当前相比,未来3种气候情景下两物种适生区面积的扩张幅度均大于收缩幅度,且总体向高海拔地区扩张。

     

    Abstract: Elucidating habitat selection and overlap among sympatric species, as well as predicting the impacts of future climate change on their habitats, is crucial for understanding species behaviour and implementing integrated multi-species management. 75 and 82 occurrence points for Pantholops hodgsonii and Procapra picticaudata were obtained on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, respectively, through field surveys and literature review. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with 18 key environmental variables, we assessed current habitat suitability and overlap, and predicted spatial-temporal changes and development trend under future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). Results show that the suitable habitat area was 1 108 587 km2 for Pantholops hodgsonii and 1 001 295 km2 for Procapra picticaudata, with an overlap of 486 111 km2, indicating a low degree of overlap. The main environmental factors influencing habitat selection showed both similarities and differences between the two species. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat range will remaine largely consistent with the present, but the distribution centroids tende to shift southwestward. Compared with the current situation, the habitat expansion of the two species' suitable habitat areas under the three climate scenarios in the future will all exceed the contraction of the habitate, with a general shift towards higher altitudes.

     

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