Abstract:
Investigating the spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation growth dynamics and their response mechanisms to climatic factors is crucial for maintaining ecosystem stability. Based on the kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) from 2000 to 2022, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of kNDVI in Shandong Province and its spatial response characteristics to climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) using methods such as Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Ridge Regression Analysis. The results show that vegetation kNDVI in Shandong Province improved significantly during 2000 to 2022, with a long-term upward trend across the entire region with 63.97% of the area exhibited a significant increase and fluctuation cycles of 0.1, 0.5, and 1 a. The increase of kNDVI was particularly prominent in spring and autumn, while summer and the growing season showed relatively weaker improvements. The response of kNDVI to climatic factors showed distinct seasonal and regional differences. During the growing season, temperature contributed more to kNDVI than precipitation, and spring temperature and precipitation showing the strongest positive feedback. Spatially, spring kNDVI in eastern and northern regions was primarily driven by temperature, while precipitation dominated in other areas. During summer and autumn, precipitation became the determining factor for kNDVI, with eastern and northern regions mainly influenced by precipitation, while southwestern areas mainly remained temperature-driven. This study provides a scientific basis for understanding vegetation dynamics in Shandong Province and their relationship with climatic factors, supporting the formulation of regional ecological management and climate adaptation strategies.