减污降碳扩绿增长协同增效的时空分异、差异成因与驱动因素

Spatio-temporal Differentiation, Underlying Causes and Driving Factors of the Synergistic Effects of Pollution Reduction, Carbon Mitigation, Green Expansion and Economic Growth

  • 摘要: 推进减污降碳扩绿增长协同增效是实现经济社会发展全面绿色转型的重点任务。该研究揭示了2004-2021年中国城市减污降碳扩绿增长协同增效的时空格局演化特征、空间集聚特征、区域差异成因以及驱动因素的时空异质性。结果表明: (1)协同增效指数呈上升趋势, 均值增幅达285%且呈逐年提升态势, 总体差异有所扩大, 空间转移特征基本呈"东北-西南"格局, 空间分布趋于均衡。(2)空间集聚特征以HH型和LL型为主, 在研究期内占比分别从28%升至33%, 从54%降至37%, 形成东高西低的梯度分布。(3)协同增效总体差异无明显变化, 差异主要来源于区域间差异, 东部-中部区域间差异最大, 均值为0.453;中部-西部地区间差异最小; 东部区域内不均衡程度较高。(4)人均二氧化碳排放量与全社会人均用电量总体对减污降碳扩绿增长协同增效呈负向影响, 占比分别在50%与75%左右, 人均公园绿地面积与固定资本存量对减污降碳扩绿增长协同增效表现为正向影响且呈6%~8%的波动增强状态。全社会人均用电量与人均公园绿地面积的空间异质性呈增大态势。人均二氧化碳排放量与固定资本存量的空间异质性呈缩小趋势。最后, 研究围绕差异化区域治理、跨区域协同联动和动态化因子调控等提出对策建议。

     

    Abstract: Promoting the synergistic enhancement of pollution reduction, carbon mitigation, green expansion and economic growth is a key task in achieving a comprehensive green transition in economic and social development. This study has revealed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics, spatial clustering patterns, causes of regional disparities and spatio-temporal heterogeneity of driving factors underlying the synergistic efficacy in Chinese cities from 2004 to 2021. The results show that: (1) The synergistic efficacy index exhibited an upward trend, with a mean increase of 285% and year-on-year improvement, while the overall regional disparities expanded. The spatial transition pattern largely followed a 'northeast-southwest' structure, and spatial distribution tended toward balance. (2) Spatial clustering was dominated by HH-type and LL-type agglomerations with their proportions increased from 28% to 33% and decreased from 54% to 37%, respectively, forming an "east-high, west-low" gradient distribution. (3) The overall disparity in synergistic efficacy showed no significant change. Differences mainly stemmed from inter-regional disparities, with the largest gap observed between eastern and central regions (mean value 0.453), and the smallest disparities were between central and western regions. Eastern regions exhibited relatively higher intra-regional imbalance. (4) Per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita electricity consumption generally had a negative impact on synergistic efficacy, accounting for approximately 50% and 75% of the effect, respectively. In contrast, per capita green space and fixed capital stock showed positive effects, with fluctuations strengthening by 6%-8%. The spatial heterogeneity of per capita electricity consumption and per capita green space increased, while that of per capita carbon emissions and fixed capital stock decreased. Finally, the study proposes countermeasures focusing on differentiated regional governance, cross-regional collaboration, and dynamic factor regulation.

     

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