近30年来黄泛区生态系统服务权衡与协同动态变化及其生态分区
Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Service Trade-offs/Synergies and Ecological Zoning in the Yellow River Floodplain over a 30-year Period
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摘要: 明确生态系统服务权衡与协同动态及其形成机制是实施差异化生态分区管理, 推动区域可持续发展的关键。本研究基于1 km和县域2个尺度, 采用相关性分析与地理探测器方法, 系统分析了黄泛区1990-2020年的生态系统服务权衡与协同的演变特征及其关键驱动因子; 结合自组织特征映射网络法, 依据生态系统服务簇的现状特征与长期变化趋势划分跨尺度生态功能分区。结果表明: 固碳服务和土壤保持服务的空间格局基本稳定, 粮食生产服务和产水服务变化显著; 固碳服务整体呈下降趋势, 粮食生产服务快速上升, 产水与土壤保持服务则波动增长。自2000年起, 多数生态系统服务对为协同关系, 仅涉及土壤保持服务的少数对为权衡关系; 1990-2000年粮食生产-固碳服务对和产水-固碳服务对在2个尺度下均发生权衡向协同的转变, 1 km尺度下转为协同的区域占比分别达23%和19%, 县域尺度下的转变占比分别为19%和14%;2000-2010年产水-土壤保持服务对在2个尺度下均通过13%的协同优化, 实现了权衡向协同的转变。1990-2020年除1 km尺度下的粮食生产-土壤保持服务对和县域尺度下的产水-固碳服务对、固碳-土壤保持服务对外, 其余均表现出协同增强的优化趋势。双因子交互分析显示, 任意两因子之间的交互作用均强于单因子, 自然因子与城市化驱动的因子(景观构成、景观格局、社会经济因子)交互的解释力更强; 土地利用类型占比在县域尺度下的解释力优于1 km尺度。基于生态系统服务簇的现状特征和长期变化趋势, 最终在2种尺度下划定9种生态功能区, 并结合不同尺度下的关键驱动因子从不同管理优先级的角度提出差异化的生态管理建议。研究结果可为黄泛区不同尺度下生态系统服务的协同优化与长期分区管理提供科学参考。Abstract: Understanding the dynamic trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services (ESs) and their underlying drivers is essential for implementing differentiated ecological zoning and promoting regional sustainability. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanisms of ES relationships in the Yellow River Floodplain from 1990 to 2020 at both 1 km and county scales. Correlation analysis and geographical detector method were employed to quantify ES interactions, and a self-organizing feature map (SOFM) was used to delineate cross-scale ecological zones based on the status and long-term trajectories of ecosystem service bundles (ESBs). The results show: (1) Carbon sequestration (CS) and soil conservation (SC) services maintained relatively stable spatial patterns over the study period, while food production (FP) and water yield (WY) services exhibited significant spatial variability. CS generally declined, FP increased sharply after 2000, and both WY and SC showed fluctuating upward trends. (2) Since 2000, most ES pairs shifted toward synergies, with trade-offs mainly involving SC. From 1990 to 2000, trade-offs between FP-CS and WY-CS transitioned to synergies across both scales, with synergistic regions accounting for 23% and 19% at 1 km scale, and 19% and 14% at county scale, respectively. Between 2000 and 2010, 13% of the regions experienced synergy enhancement for the WY-SC pair. (3) From 1990 to 2020, five of six ES pairs at 1 km scale and four of six at county scale showed a trend of synergy strengthening, except for FP-SC at 1 km scale and WY-CS and CS-SC at county scale. (4) Interaction detection revealed that two-factor interactions exerted stronger effects on ES patterns than single drivers, with natural factors interacting with urbanization-related factors (landscape composition, socioeconomic attributes, e.g.) exhibiting particularly strong explanatory power. Land-use composition had greater explanatory strength at the county scale. (5) Based on ESB patterns and trends, nine ecological functional zones were identified across scales. Tailored management priorities were proposed for each zone according to the dominant driving factors at the corresponding scale. This research provides a robust multi-scale zoning framework that supports the coordinated optimization of ESs and offers practical guidance for long-term spatial planning and differentiated ecological management in floodplain systems.
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