碳排放权和用能权交易双重试点市场政策效应评估

Evaluation of the Policy Effects of Dual Pilot Markets for Carbon Emissions Trading and Energy Quota Trading

  • 摘要: 碳排放权和用能权交易是我国涉碳生态资源权益交易机制探索中试点推行的2类重要政策工具。本研究基于2006—2022年中国30个省级地区的面板数据,借助Kaya恒等式进行理论分析,采用双重差分法对碳排放权和用能权交易的政策效应进行了系统性评估。结果表明:(1)以2011年和2016年分别作为碳排放权和用能权交易这2类政策的启动时点,以试点实施与否作为政策变量,尽管基准模型的设定均可通过平行趋势假设评估,但仅有碳排放权交易具有显著的降碳效应,其可使试点地区碳排放总量下降16.05%;用能权交易没有体现出显著的节能效应,这与市场欠活跃相关;基准模型的前述结论得到了多类稳健性检验的验证。(2)碳排放权交易通过促进产业结构升级,特别是产业结构合理化,进而实现碳减排;用能权交易则触发了能源清洁化和绿色低碳技术进步等中间机制。(3)碳排放权交易在碳排放总量和强度处于中分位的省市具有更明显的政策效应。(4)在排除政策相互干扰的情况下,碳排放权和用能权交易这2类政策间仍反映出相互的外溢效应。据此,针对优化这2类试点市场运行和探索衔接机制提出了政策建议。

     

    Abstract: Carbon emissions trading and energy quota trading are two important piloted policy instruments in exploration of China's carbon-related ecological resource rights trading mechanisms. Utilizing panel data from 30 provinces (2006-2022), this study conducts a theoretical analysis using the Kaya identity and systematically evaluates the effects of carbon emissions trading and energy quota trading policies through a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The results indicate that: (1) Using 2011 and 2016 as the starting points for the two policies and defining policy implementation in pilot areas as the policy variable. Although both benchmark models can be verified through the parallel trend hypothesis, only carbon emission trading demonstrates significant carbon reduction effects by reducing total carbon emissions in pilot regions by 16.05%. Energy quota trading fails to exhibit notable energy-saving effects, which is related to the lack of market activity. These aforementioned conclusions of benchmark regression have been validated by multiple robustness tests. (2) Carbon emission trading promotes the upgrading of industrial structure, especially the rationalization of industrial structure, thereby achieving carbon reduction. Energy quota trading has triggered intermediate mechanisms such as energy cleanliness and progress in green and low-carbon technologies. (3)Carbon emission trading has a more significant policy effect observed in provinces at median quantiles of total emissions and emission intensity. (4) Mutual spillover effects persist between the carbon emission trading and energy quota trading policies even after excluding policy interference. Accordingly, policy recommendations are proposed for optimizing the operation of the two pilot markets and exploring the linkage mechanism.

     

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