Abstract:
Carbon emissions trading and energy quota trading are two important piloted policy instruments in exploration of China's carbon-related ecological resource rights trading mechanisms. Utilizing panel data from 30 provinces (2006-2022), this study conducts a theoretical analysis using the Kaya identity and systematically evaluates the effects of carbon emissions trading and energy quota trading policies through a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The results indicate that: (1) Using 2011 and 2016 as the starting points for the two policies and defining policy implementation in pilot areas as the policy variable. Although both benchmark models can be verified through the parallel trend hypothesis, only carbon emission trading demonstrates significant carbon reduction effects by reducing total carbon emissions in pilot regions by 16.05%. Energy quota trading fails to exhibit notable energy-saving effects, which is related to the lack of market activity. These aforementioned conclusions of benchmark regression have been validated by multiple robustness tests. (2) Carbon emission trading promotes the upgrading of industrial structure, especially the rationalization of industrial structure, thereby achieving carbon reduction. Energy quota trading has triggered intermediate mechanisms such as energy cleanliness and progress in green and low-carbon technologies. (3)Carbon emission trading has a more significant policy effect observed in provinces at median quantiles of total emissions and emission intensity. (4) Mutual spillover effects persist between the carbon emission trading and energy quota trading policies even after excluding policy interference. Accordingly, policy recommendations are proposed for optimizing the operation of the two pilot markets and exploring the linkage mechanism.