基于Dagum基尼系数分解与探索性时空数据分析的中国自然保护区覆盖率时空分异研究

Research on the Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Nature Reserve Coverage Rate in China Based on the Dagum Gini Coefficient Decomposition and Exploratory Spatiotemporal Data Analysis

  • 摘要: 探讨自然保护区时空演变特征和分异格局, 可为我国完善自然保护地体系建设提供参考。以中国31个省份的自然保护区覆盖率面板数据为对象, 利用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数分解法、探索性时空数据分析等方法, 分析中国东、中、西和东北部4个地区及各省份自然保护区的建设差异和时空交互特征。结果表明: (1)1985-2020年, 中国自然保护区覆盖率以0.35%·a-1的速度上升, 呈现"低位缓慢上升-快速提升-高位波动"的变化趋势; 在空间格局上, 省级单元呈现"北高南低、西高东低"的分布特征。(2)中国自然保护区覆盖率总体差异以及4个地区差异均呈现波动下降并趋于稳定的趋势, 区域间差异是主要来源。(3)省份之间自然保护区发展呈现空间正相关性, 在局部空间结构与依赖方向上, 西部与东北部地区波动性较强, 中、东部地区相对稳定; 在覆盖率时空跃迁过程中整体表现出一定的转移惰性, 具有较强的空间依赖性。其中, 中、东部多数省份始终保持低覆盖率属性, 是制约中国自然保护区覆盖率提升的关键区域。因此, 建议自然保护区的发展策略应着力缩小地区发展差距, 优先强化中、东部地区生态关键区域的保护优先序评估工作, 同时关注地区之间的协同效应。

     

    Abstract: Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution and differentiation patterns of nature reserves provides valuable insights for strengthening China's nature reserve system. Using panel data on nature reserve coverage (NRC) across 31 provinces, this study employs kernel density estimation, the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method, and exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis (ESTDA) to investigate regional disparities and spatiotemporal interactions in the establishment of nature reserves among the four major regions-eastern, central, western, and northeastern China-across individual provinces. Results show that: (1) From 1985 to 2020, the NRC in China increased at an average rate of 0.35%·a-1, showing a trend of "slow increase at a low level to rapid growth and to fluctuation at a high level". Spatially, the provincial distribution displayed a pattern of "high in the north and west, low in the south and east." (2) Both the overall disparities in nature reserve coverage and those within the four major regions showed a fluctuating yet declining trend toward stabilization, with inter-regional net worth differences identified as the main source of variation. (3) The development of nature reserves across provinces exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelation. In terms of local spatial structure and dependency, the western and northeastern regions showed stronger fluctuations, whereas the central and eastern regions remained relatively stable. During the spatiotemporal transition of coverage rates, a certain degree of transfer inertia and strong spatial dependence were observed. Most provinces in the central and eastern regions consistently maintained low coverage levels, making them key areas constraining the overall improvement of China's nature reserve coverage. Therefore, future development strategies for nature reserves should focus on narrowing the regional development gap, prioritizing conservation priority assessments in ecologically critical areas of the central and eastern regions, and enhancing cross-regional coordination effects.

     

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