基于XGBoost-SHAP模型的山西省煤炭国家规划矿区生态质量变化评估及驱动机制研究
Evaluation of Ecological Quality Changes and Driving Mechanisms in National Coal Planning Mining Areas of Shanxi Province Based on XGBoost-SHAP Model
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摘要: 山西省煤炭国家规划矿区是黄河流域重要的能源富集区与生态脆弱区, 长期面临高强度煤炭开采与生态环境保护的双重压力; 然而, 其生态质量时空演变特征及驱动因素尚不清晰, 严重制约了区域生态修复的精准施策。为此, 本研究基于2000—2020年多源遥感数据, 通过构建矿区遥感生态指数(M-RSEI), 利用XGBoost-SHAP可解释框架, 揭示其生态质量的时空演变特征及非线性驱动机制。结果表明: (1)相较于传统遥感生态指数(RSEI)模型, M-RSEI在煤炭矿区环境下具有更强的鲁棒性与适用性, 并能准确表征矿区"开采—扩张—修复"全生命周期的动态演化特征。(2)2000-2020年间, 煤炭矿区生态质量总体处于中等水平并呈现稳步改善趋势, M-RSEI均值由0.453上升至0.560, 在空间上呈现"东南高、西北低"的空间格局。(3)XGBoost-SHAP归因分析表明, 年潜在蒸散量、年降水量和土地利用类型是影响研究区生态质量空间分异的关键因子, 且各因子对生态质量的影响具有显著的非线性响应特征与阈值效应。研究结论可为资源型地区制定差异化可持续发展策略、促进绿色矿山建设与生态环境高质量协调发展提供科学参考。Abstract: The nationally planned coal mining area in Shanxi Province is an important energy-rich and ecologically fragile area in the Yellow River Basin, and it has long been under the dual pressure of high-intensity coal mining and ecological environment protection. However, the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics and driving factors of its ecological quality remain unclear, which seriously restricts precise implementation of regional ecological restoration policies. Based on multi-source remote-sensing data from 2000 to 2020, in this study, a remote-sensing ecological index of the mining area (M-RSEI) was established, and the XGBoost-SHAP interpretable framework was used to reveal the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics and nonlinear driving mechanisms of its ecological quality. The results show that: (1) M-RSEI is more robust and applicable to the coal-mining area environment than the traditional RSEI model, and it can accurately characterize the dynamic evolutionary characteristics of the entire life cycle of "mining-expansion-restoration" in the mining area. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the ecological quality of the coal mining areas was generally at a medium level and showed a steady improvement trend. The average value of M-RSEI increased from 0.453 to 0.560, presenting a spatial pattern of "high in the southeast and low in the northwest" in terms of space. (3) The XGBoost-SHAP attribution analysis indicated that annual potential evapotranspiration, annual precipitation, and land-use type are the key factors affecting the spatial differentiation of ecological quality in the study area, and the influence of each factor on ecological quality has significant nonlinear response characteristics and threshold effects. Our conclusions can provide a scientific reference for resource-based regions to formulate different sustainable-development strategies and promote high-quality coordinated development of green mine construction and the ecological environment.
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