Habitat Overlap and Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Pantholops hodgsonii and Procapra picticaudata on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Elucidating habitat selection and overlap among sympatric species, as well as predicting the impacts of future climate change on their habitats, is crucial for understanding species behaviour and implementing integrated multi-species management. 75 and 82 occurrence points for Pantholops hodgsonii and Procapra picticaudata were obtained on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, respectively, through field surveys and literature review. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with 18 key environmental variables, we assessed current habitat suitability and overlap, and predicted spatial-temporal changes and development trend under future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). Results show that the suitable habitat area was 1 108 587 km² for Pantholops hodgsonii and 1 001 295 km² for Procapra picticaudata, with an overlap of 486 111 km², indicating a low degree of overlap. The main environmental factors influencing habitat selection showed both similarities and differences between the two species. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat range will remaine largely consistent with the present, but the distribution centroids tende to shift southwestward. Compared with the current situation, the habitat expansion of the two species' suitable habitat areas under the three climate scenarios in the future will all exceed the contraction of the habitate, with a general shift towards higher altitudes.