Uncertainty Control in Ecological Risk Assessment of Industrial Sites Contamination: A Tiered Framework Based on Ecological Scenarios and Causal Inferences

The issue of soil contamination at industrial sites has become increasingly prominent, making the development of an economical and efficient risk assessment framework crucial for scientific site management and effective remediation. Traditional ecological risk assessment methods often fail to adequately account for variations in ecological risks arising from future development scenarios and the causal relationship between pollutants and ecological hazards. This may lead to assessment results deviating from the actual conditions, and increasing uncertainties in the assessment work. This study proposed a multi-scenario, multi-level risk assessment framework for industrial contaminated sites that integrates causal relationship determination. The framework employs comprehensive parameters to construct multiple ecological scenarios and applies Hill's criteria to systematically and rigorously evaluate causal relationships between site-specific ecological risks and pollutant exposure, thereby preventing misjudgments of risk sources and inaccurate remediation strategies. The feasibility of this framework has been verified through field validation work at typical industrial contaminated sites. The proposal of this comprehensive risk assessment framework provides scientific basis and efficient technical pathway for the ecological risk management of contaminated sites.