关键词: 减污降碳, 时空效应, 驱动机制, 长三角城市群

Abstract: Urban development is simultaneously facing multiple pressures of climate change, ecological protection, and economic development. Therefore, exploring the characteristics of spatial and temporal driving factors for pollution and carbon reduction at the urban agglomeration scale and their evolution characteristics will help us develop a better understanding of the interaction between urbanization and the environment. Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) as the research object, the Index of Pollution and Carbon Reduction (IPCR) is constructed on the basis of carbon emission levels and pollutant emission data. Moreover, the spatial and temporal driving characteristics of economic development, industrial structure, land use structure, population, and climate change on the IPCR and the changes in the importance of the driving factors are analyzed by the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) and Random Forest (RF) methods. The results show that: from 2003 to 2017, the overall IPCR of the YRDUA showed a downward trend, with the average IPCR of the 27 cities decreasing from 0.23 in 2003 to 0.05 in 2017; during this period, Chuzhou was still in the higher echelon of the average IPCR, with the amplitude of variation 18.62%. Considering the time effect, the adjusted R² and R² of the GTWR model are higher than 0.96, which improves the fitting accuracy and superiority compared with the GWR model. Shanghai, Suzhou, and nine cities in Zhejiang province are negatively driven by the size of landscaped green areas, which leads to the IPCR decrease. Total energy consumption ranks 1st in importance in three periods, 2003-2007, 2008-2012, and 2013-2017, while landscaped green area gradually increased in importance from the 5th in 2003-2007 to the 2nd in 2013-2017. Although population density and total population ranked lower, the overall importance registered an upward trend. Generally speaking, the GTWR model has an excellent spatial and temporal fitting ability for the IPCR, and the spatial and temporal effects of the IPCR are significant. We suggest that the YRDUA to improve energy utilization efficiency, increase efforts on developing tertiary industries and optimize land use structure.

Key words: pollution and carbon reduction, spatial and temporal effect, driving mechanism, Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration