基于灰色关联模型的国家湿地公园政府与社会资本合作模式(PPP)风险识别与分析

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2022.0006

生态与农村环境学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 429-435.doi: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2022.0006

基于灰色关联模型的国家湿地公园政府与社会资本合作模式(PPP)风险识别与分析

秦涛¹, 宋蕊¹, 靳承卓²

1. 北京林业大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083;
2. 中国传媒大学文化产业管理学院, 北京 100024

收稿日期:2022-01-05 出版日期:2023-04-25 发布日期:2023-04-25
通讯作者: 宋蕊,E-mali:songrui2020@163.com E-mail:songrui2020@163.com
作者简介:秦涛(1982-),男,黑龙江密山人,教授,博士,研究方向为森林保险与林业金融。E-mail: qintao415@126.com
基金资助:
国家林业和草原局重大问题调研项目(JYC2020);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(20YJA790059);国家社会科学基金(19BGL052)

Risk Identification and Analysis of National Wetland Park Public-private Partnership Project Based on Grey Correlation Model

QIN Tao¹, SONG Rui¹, JIN Cheng-zhuo²

1. College of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;
2. College of Cultural Industry Management, China Communication University, Beijing 100024, China

Received:2022-01-05 Online:2023-04-25 Published:2023-04-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 国家湿地公园采用政府与社会资本合作模式(PPP)运营,可以有效解决生态产品供给的融资困境,提高项目的管理效率。但国家湿地公园PPP项目的参与者与环节众多,在执行过程中面临诸多风险,因此需要对项目进行风险识别与分析,以确定关键性风险,并采取相应的防范及应对措施。该文采用核对表法识别风险的具体表现形式,将PPP项目风险确定为政治、宏观经济、法律、市场、融资、设计建设、运营、移交、项目公司与自然风险。根据132份问卷结果,对国家湿地公园PPP项目风险因素进行评价,以风险发生概率、风险损失大小、风险发生后处理效率和风险管理经验4项指标为评价依据,采用改进灰色关联模型对各风险因素进行量化。研究表明,国家湿地公园PPP项目面临政府违约、延迟获得财政补贴、缺乏项目经验、施工设计存在瑕疵、施工技术不达标、融资成本高、法律机制不完善、管理方法不健全8项关键风险,应当建立沟通协商机制、提高公司整体实力、创新融通资金渠道、完善配套法律政策。

关键词: 国家湿地公园, PPP融资模式, 关键性风险, 风险管理

Abstract: The National Wetland Park operating PPP mode can effectively solve the financing dilemma of ecological product supply and improve the management efficiency of the project. However, there are many participants and links in the PPP projects of the National Wetland Park, which inevitably faces many risks during the implementation process. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and analyze the risks of the projects to determine the key risks, take corresponding measurements to prevent and respond. In this paper, the specific forms of risks are identified by checklist method, and the risks of PPP projects are defined as political risk, macroeconomic risk, legal risk, market risk, financing risk, design and construction risk, operational risk, handover risk, project company risk and natural risk. According to the results of 132 questionnaires, the paper formed the risk factor evaluation of the National Wetland Park PPP project. Based on the four indicators of risk occurrence probability, risk loss size, post-risk treatment efficiency and risk management experience, the improved grey correlation model was used to quantify the risk factors. The research shows that the PPP project of the National Wetland Park faces eight key risks: government default, delay in obtaining financial subsidies, lacking of project experience, defects in construction design, substandard construction technology, high financing cost, imperfect legal mechanism and imperfect management methods. It should establish a communication and consultation mechanism, improve the overall strength of the company, innovate financing channels and improve supporting legal policies.

Key words: the National Wetland Park, PPP financing model, key risks, risk management

中图分类号:

秦涛, 宋蕊, 靳承卓. 基于灰色关联模型的国家湿地公园政府与社会资本合作模式(PPP)风险识别与分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2023, 39(4): 429-435.

QIN Tao, SONG Rui, JIN Cheng-zhuo. Risk Identification and Analysis of National Wetland Park Public-private Partnership Project Based on Grey Correlation Model[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2023, 39(4): 429-435.

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基于灰色关联模型的国家湿地公园政府与社会资本合作模式(PPP)风险识别与分析

Risk Identification and Analysis of National Wetland Park Public-private Partnership Project Based on Grey Correlation Model

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