关键词: 土地利用冲突, 时空演变, 随机森林模型, 驱动因子, 昌江流域

Abstract: A comprehensive scientific understanding of the spatial and temporal evolution of land use conflicts, as well as the identification of their key influencing factors, holds immense significance for promoting regional sustainable development. Taking Changjiang River Basin as the study area, where exists obvious conflicts on soil and water resources, a quantitative model of land use conflicts was constructed by using the landscape pattern index to reflect the changes in the spatial location and intensity of land use conflicts in the basin from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the random forest model was utilized to identify the important influencing factors, and biased dependency graphs were employed to illustrate the marginal responses of these factors to the changes in land use conflict intensity. The results show that (1) the overall land use conflicts in the Changjiang River Basin were basically controllable from 2000 to 2020. High conflict values were distributed around the urban areas and along both sides of the river system. The urban-rural intertwining zone emerged as the primary spatial unit of conflict, with notable competition for water resources within the basin. The overall conflict intensity exhibited a pattern of midstream > downstream > upstream. (2) Among the influencing factors, social anthropogenic disturbances such as distance from major roads, population density, and water resource conditions such as average annual precipitation and distance from major water systems played key roles in the change of land use conflict intensity. (3) A nonlinear response relationship existed between the influencing factors and land use conflict intensity, with the agglomeration effect of the population and the constraints of the natural background being significant reasons for this nonlinearity. The Changjiang River Basin needs to develop a reasonable water allocation plan, and at the same time, strictly control the urban-rural land use conflicts brought about by excessive socio-economic development.

Key words: land use conflict, spatial and temporal evolution, random forest model, driving factor, Changjiang River Basin