大连市环境负荷预测分析

doi:10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2017.01.008

Abstract

Abstract:

To study the dynamic mutually-promoting and restraining relationships of regional environment with urbanization and industrialization, a regional relative environmental load index model with the pollutant discharge intensity in the reference area set as reference point was built up, using the comparative analysis method, a comprehensive evaluation program formulated, and criteria for judging whether or not a regional environment was safe proposed. Based on empirical analysis of the environmental load of Dalian during 2000-2012, prediction was made of responses of the environmental load in Dalian and China in 2025, by taking into account the national economic and social development programs and the goals of related environmental protection programs of the country and the city. Results show that with the living standard of the residents and the pollution controlling technical level growing steadily, the threshold of environmental load in Dalian on the whole ascended; the discharge of the three types of domestic waste aggravated the regional environmental load, and the discharge of the three types of industrial waste did not show much negative influence on the regional environmental load; the population-environment load index declined first and then turned back upwards, exhibiting an aggravating trend, while the industry-environment load index remained quite stable with a slight decline. It is predicted that the environment system in the region will remain in the blue alert state or at a relatively safe level after 2016, while the system load will decline at a gradually slower rate. Therefore, it's necessary to control the speed of urbanization timely and reasonably.

Key words: environmental load, regional response, empirical analysis, urbanization, industrialization

CLC Number:

GAO Jia-ji, ZANG Zheng. Prediction and Analysis of Environmental Load: An Empirical Research in Dalian[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2017, 33(1): 55-61.

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Prediction and Analysis of Environmental Load: An Empirical Research in Dalian

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