基于结构方程模型的窟野河流域生态安全评估与驱动因素分析

doi:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2022.0930

Abstract

Abstract: Regional ecological security is the direction of the development of modern cities. Understanding of regional ecological risks and building an ecological security pattern can contribute to the comprehensive improvement of the level of regional ecological security. To date, the study of regional ecological risks are mainly focused on humid and subhumid zones, and the driving factor analysis of regional ecological risks are mainly using geographical detectors, and the research method is relatively single. In this study, Kuye River Basin was taken as the research object, and the land-use database in 2000, 2010, 2013 and 2020 were used as the basic data source, and an ecological risk assessment model was constructed from the perspective of landscape ecology, and the ecological risk of the basin was quantitatively studied by using spatial and temporal evolution patterns coupled with distribution characteristics and driving factors. The results show that:(1) the ecological risk of the river basin is divided into three levels:high, medium and low. The proportion of high-risk areas in the entire study period is the largest, accounting for more than 40% of the area;(2) During the period from 2000 to 2020, the proportion of high ecological risk areas decreased slightly from 45.95% to 44.98%, and the high risk area decreased by approximately 84.806 km²; (3) The ecological risk in the basin presents a certain degree of spatial differentiation characteristics of high-high aggregation (Moran's I=0.333), and the high-risk areas are concentrated in the center of the basin, basically distributed along the water system in the basin, and the farther the distance from the water system, the lower the ecological risk index; (4) Precipitation, vegetation coverage and temperature are the main natural factors that affecting ecological risk in the basin, and the direct path coefficients are -0.479, -0.449 and 0.383, respectively. In addition, GDP is also the main indirect factor affecting ecological risk in the region, and the total effect coefficient is -0.49.

Key words: Kuye River Basin, ecological risk, structural equation model, grey relational degree, stepwise regression, path analysis

CLC Number:

Q146

XIE Xing-long, BAI Xiao-jun. Ecological Security Assessment and Driving Factor Analysis of Kuye River Basin Based on Structural Equation Model[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2023, 39(7): 864-873.

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Ecological Security Assessment and Driving Factor Analysis of Kuye River Basin Based on Structural Equation Model

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