Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 461-468.doi: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2023.1043

Previous Articles     Next Articles

The Patterns of Cultivated Land and Well-facilitated Farmland in China at the Provincial Level in the Next 30 Years

LI Jun1,2,3, SHI Xiao-li2,3, SHI Wen-jiao1,4, WANG Shao-qiang1,4   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction/School of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China;
    3. Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Remote Sensing Identification of Environmental Change/Geocomputation and Planning Center, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China;
    4. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2023-11-21 Online:2024-04-25 Published:2024-04-25

RichHTML

4

PDF (PC)

33

Abstract: Accurate prediction the future patterns of cultivated land and well-facilitated farmland in China is crucial for ensuring food security and improving the quality of cultivated land. In this study, to ensure the stable grain contributions of each province, we assume that the area proportions of cultivated land and well-facilitated farmland for each province in China will remain unchanged in the future. Based on the data of the current areas of cultivated land and well-facilitated farmland in each province, as well as predictions of the national cultivated land area in 2030 and 2050, the national well-facilitated farmland area in 2025, 2030, and 2050, and well-facilitated farmland area in 2025 and 2030 at the provincial level, we used quadratic polynomial fitting by least square method to predict the areas of cultivated land and well-facilitated farmland at both levels from 2025 to 2050. Then, we calculated the indices of the retention rate of cultivated land area and the area proportion of well-facilitated farmland to cultivated land at the provincial level in the future. The results indicate that the retention rate of cultivated land area in China will remain stable at 100% in 2050, with the total cultivated land area keeping at 1.20×108 hm2. In 2050, the area of well-facilitated farmland in China will be 1.03×108 hm2, which will reach nearly a doubled growth, and the area proportions of well-facilitated farmland to cultivated land will rise from 43.59% in 2020 to 85.89% in 2050. In the seven sub-regions of China, all of the retention rate of cultivated land area will be stable at 100% in 2050. Affected by the trends from stable to slightly declining in the cultivated land proportions, the area proportions of well-facilitated farmland to cultivated land will be more than 90% in the regions of Huang-Huai-Hai, the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River, the Southeast, and the Qinghai-Tibet in 2050, and the proportions will range from 70% to 90% in the Northeast, the Northwest, and the Southwest regions in the same year. At the provincial level, retention rate of cultivated land area will be higher in northern China such as the Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, and Shandong, while area proportions of well-facilitated farmland to cultivated land will exhibit higher in southern provinces such as Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong. Our prediction can provide a scientific basis for future planning in national spatial planning, and can also support the studies on layout of cultivated land and farmland use at the provincial level.

Key words: China, cultivated land protection, area proportions of well-facilitated farmland to cultivated land, retention rate of cultivated land area, trend prediction

CLC Number: