Abstract: Based on a pressure-status-response(PSR)model,an ecological security evaluation index system which consists of 15 selected items was established.The ecological security of the Tuojiang River Basin in 2010,2015 and 2020 was predicted as early warning with the aid of the technologies of analytic hierarchy process(AHP),chronological prediction,fuzzy integrated evaluation,and principal component analysis.Results show that(1)on the whole the ecological security of the basin will be getting better and better in the years of 2010,2015 and 2020;(2)it will vary from section to section.It will be much better in the upper reaches than that in the middle and lower reaches,and in the middle reaches than in the lower reaches,so the lower reaches of the Tuojiang River Basin should be the major zone for concern;(3)in terms of mid-term ecological security early-warning,the basin can be sorted into three categories,i.e.safe region,consistently endangered region and degraded region.The safe region is composed of 21 counties(cities or districts)in the upper,middle and lower reaches,the endangered one,of 8 counties(cities or districts)in the middle and lower reaches;and degraded one,of 2 counties only in the middle reaches;and(4)the main factors for early-warning of ecological security in the period of 2010-2020 in the studied area can be concluded as six categories,i.e.vegetation coverage and agricultural disasters,rural population quality,land loading capacity,land use patterns,non-point source pollution,and soil erosion.Based on the findings in the study,the following ecological regulatory countermeasures are put forth:(1)to restore vegetation and improve eco-environment;(2)to enhance the capacity of the agriculture on preventing and standing natural disasters;(3)to strengthen skill training of the labor force and improve quality of the population;(4)to rationalize exploitation of the land resources and raise loading capacity of the land;(5)to optimize land use structure and increase landscape diversity;(6)to advocate biological control of pest,and control non-point source pollution;(7)to develop soil and water conservation projects.

Key words: Tuojiang River Basin, ecological security early-warning, ecological regulation