Abstract: In studying balance between carbon emission and carbon sequestration and its dynamics in Shandong Province, the carbon footprint method was modified, and new concepts of carbon carrying capacity and net carbon footprint were brought forth, and models for calculation of these two were built. Results of the study show that during the period from 2000 to 2010 Shandong’s carbon footprint increased by 261.04% or at a rate of 23.73% annually, that is, from 33 033.20×10⁴ t to 119 261.76×10⁴ t, and its use of fossil fuel contributed 91.58%-94.85% to its total carbon footprint, showing that the increased consumption of fossil fuel is the main cause of the growth of its carbon footprint. However, Iits carbon carrying capacity dropped from 1 696.44×10⁴ t to 1 588.01×10⁴ t, or by 6.39%. Its forest carbon sequestration made up 80.97%-88.40% of its total capacity, indicating that forest is the most important factor of the carbon carrying capacity. Its net carbon footprint increased from 31 336.76×10⁴ t to 117 673.75×10⁴ t, or by 275.51%, making its net carbon footprint per capita 1.74-6.14 times higher than the target set for control of global climate change. In the years after 2002, its net carbon footprint per capita remained higher than the nation’s and the world’s, but lower than the United States’. Its net carbon footprint per unit area also reached 17.73-66.58 times higher than the target set for control of global climate change. And its carbon footprint per 10 000 Yuan GDP was reduced by 2.11% annually, which shows that the province has made some achievements in implementing its policies and strategies to reduce carbon emissions. Nevertheless, Shandong Province has become one of the major contributors of carbon emission in China, bringing about a negative impact on climate change, so Shandong Province is still faced with a tough task of reducing carbon emissions.

Key words: carbon footprint, carbon capacity, net carbon footprint, Shandong Province