Abstract: Ecological conservation redlines are baselines and lifelines to guarantee national and local ecological safety. Rapid urbanization development has led to anthropogenic disturbance expansion and urban population aggregation. Highly intensive anthropogenic activities have posed great threats to habitats and wildlife in the ecological conservation redlines. Taking the ecological conservation redline of Nanjing City as the research area in this study, the risk transfer network "human activity (hazardousness)-risk stressor (joint exposure)-ecological conservation redline (vulnerability)-anthropogenic disturbance risk" based on the Bayesian network was proposed. After that, the anthropogenic disturbance risk, which was caused by risk sources including construction land, cropland, transport land, and mining areas, was probabilistically evaluated. The following results were obtained: (1) The anthropogenic disturbance risk level was the highest in the red-line regions of Jianye District, corresponding to approximately 3.13% of high risk; (2) The hazardousness level under human activities was relatively higher in the built-up areas (especially in Qinhuai, Yuhuatai, and Gulou districts) than in the suburbs of Nanjing City, while the vulnerability level was relatively higher in the suburbs (especially in Gaochun and Liuhe districts) than in the built-up areas of Nanjing City; (3) According to the sensitivity analysis, ecological management of Jianye District can be improved by the supervision of human activities within red-line regions, important wetlands management and protection, and ecological environment monitoring capacity enhancement. This research may provide technical support for the supervision of human activity and risk management in the ecological conservation redlines.

Key words: ecological conservation redlines, risk assessment, Bayesian network, anthropogenic disturbance, Nanjing City