Abstract: A field survey was made on Celtis sinensis population in the Lasohan National Forest Park of Nanjing using a contiguous grid of quadrats to characterize quantitatively structure of Celtis sinensis population. A static life table of the population was worked out and a survival curve, a vanishing rate curve, a mortality rate curve and 4 survival function curves plotted out. Meanwhile dynamics of the population was predicted using the chronological prediction model. Results show that though fluctuation existed at various age classes of the population, on the whole, the population displayed a rising trend. Its survival curve fell into Deevey II type, which had two mortality peaks occurring at Age Class I and VII, separately. The occurrence of the first mortality peak was the result of strong intraspecies competition, while that of the second was of its entering the age of physiological death. Survival analysis show that its survival rate would only be 0.5% when it enters Age Class VI and its cumulative mortality rate would reach as high as 99.5%. Its hazard rate followed a curve similar to those of its vanishing rate and mortality rate. The findings reflect a general trend that the Celtis sinensis population is weak at the early age, grows stable in the mid-term, but declines in the old age stage. The chronological predition model for Celtis sinensis population predicts that the population will be increasing in the coming 2 – 6 years. Therefore, it is suggested that strengthening management of seedlings and young trees of Celtis sinensis should be conducive to natural renewal of the population.

Key words: celtis sinensis, life table, survival curve, chronological analysis